Political junkies who have sworn-off delicious amber liquids and all forms of egg nog are forced at this time of year to indulge in other vices, namely, spinning webs (and Webbs) about Virginia’s political future. Here are some threads to consider…
November 2011 brings another election, this one for all 140 seats in the General Assembly. Republicans have a prohibitive majority in the House, while Democrats hold a slim grip on the Senate. The wild card this time around though is redistricting. In the past, each party has gone out of its way to draw districts favorable to its side. But now, with split control, the best either can hope for is the status quo. Prediction: The suburbs will gain strength at the expense of urban and rural districts and give Republicans an edge…which they will promptly squander.
Spending, taxes and debt will rule the General Assembly agenda. It’s a short session this year, meaning the worthies will (hopefully) go home before they can utterly deplete Richmond’s liquor supplies. One of the more interesting mini-dramas will be whether house Speaker Bill Howell manages to get his repeal amendment through the Democrat-controlled Senate. He will, owing to a handful of rural Democrats who also voted for the state’s health care freedom law (which serves as the basis for the state’s lawsuit against ObamaCare). The resultant tirade of Majority Leader Dick Saslaw will be spoken of in whispered awe by future generations.
2011 is also the year in which we will learn whether Sen. Jim Webb will run for re-election. Webb knows he has to make his choice soon, as a delay would hamper a Democratic replacement’s chances of mounting a credible campaign. Prediction: Webb won’t run, but instead will decide to star in a new series on the Discovery Channel that combines “Survivorman” with “Pawn Stars,” as Webb takes his gritty realism to the jungles of Burma, where he lives on the land while haggling with the nation’s dictators over velvet Elvis prints.
Next year will also be a time when Republicans begin positioning themselves for the 2012 political Olympics. Will George Allen, tanned, rested and (he thinks) ready, really be able to clear the field and waltz toward the Senate nomination? Will Bob Marshall, Corey Stewart and former tea party president Jaime Radtke agree to sit out the dance? Prediction: George will soon discover that, in spite of the love he still enjoys among the faithful, there are no easy paths to the nomination. But unseen by all, a new candidate will emerge who captures the moment, and the momentum: NBC12 news anchor Gene Cox. While not a declared partisan, Cox looks and sounds senatorial and is the most likely to have the Howard Beale-type moment on air that makes him the consensus candidate.
And then what to do about Bob McDonnell, Bill Bolling and Ken Cuccinelli? Each man has his eye on a higher office – Bob as a possible vice presidential candidate, Bolling a known gubernatorial aspirant and Ken…well, he’s keeping his options open. Prediction: Eh, let’s save that one for next year.
