Marco Rubio leaning toward Senate bid

Rubio pledged when he announced he was running for president last year that his decision to seek the White House meant he was closing the door on running for a second term.

In March, after dropping out of the presidential race and resuming his Senate duties fulltime, Rubio reiterated his intent to retire at take a job in the private sector.

The Florida Republican is now re-considering, motivated in part by Sunday’s jihadist terrorist attack on a gay nightclub in Orlando that left 49 dead plus the shooter.

But Republican insiders are predicting that Rubio will in fact jump into the race because they believe there have been smoke signals for weeks indicating he planned to change course.

“I really hope he does reconsider, and I hope he does do it,” said Rep. Mario Diaz Balart, R-Fla., who is optimistic. “I think it’s his to lose.”

Perhaps telling, it’s GOP operatives in Florida who are most convinced that Rubio is going to run. Rubio’s team has been organizing and preparing to launch a 2016 Senate campaign for weeks, one veteran Florida Republican strategist said.

The blessing by Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera, a good personal friend of Rubio’s who is running for Senate and was all but been endorsed by the senator as his chosen successor, was a mere formality, Republicans in Florida say. Lopez-Cantera said he would step aside if Rubio wants to run.

Additionally, Rubio’s network of campaign contributors, both inside and outside of Florida, is increasingly convinced that he’s going to run, and they’re on board. “I think he runs,” said a GOP official in Florida who was not authorized to speak on the record.

Rubio, 45, told reporters on Wednesday that he would discuss the matter with his family this weekend; he has until June 24, Florida’s candidate filing deadline, to make up his mind. There is much to mull over.

There’s no guarantee he wins, for starters.

Even if Rubio wins an Aug. 30 primary, which GOP insiders say is likely, he’s expected to face the formidable Rep. Patrick Murphy, a Democrat in the general election.

Florida is a swing state, and the presidential race is expected heavily influence the Senate contest. At this point, Democrat Hillary Clinton is favored over Republican Donald Trump.

That’s not even accounting for the sharp policy differences between Trump and Rubio and how Trump’s unorthodox style will impact Rubio’s ability to run his own race and break through with his message.

In the GOP presidential primary, Rubio lost Florida to Trump — badly. Another loss at home could doom his future presidential prospects. Similarly, a win might foreclose his ability to run for president in 2020.

In a field of 17, Rubio was among the last four candidates standing when he exited the presidential race, and would be considered a top candidate in four years if there’s a Republican primary and he chooses to run.

Personally, Rubio has to decide if he wants to pass up a chance to make some money, a significant consideration given that he lives in the expensive Miami area and has four kids yet to put through college.

“He’s legitimately undecided,” said a Republican operative in Washington who spoke with Rubio this week.

“There are lots of factors in his mind, including what’s best for his family,” this source added. “He feels a duty to serve and thinks he can make a difference in the Senate if he runs for re-elect. But it’s a big decision and he is going to talk to his family about it this weekend.”

Senate Republicans are actively lobbying Rubio to run, as they have been led by Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, for weeks.

“He’s certainly getting nothing but encouragement around here,” Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn, R-Texas, said. “The Democrats have a substantial candidate, Congressman Murphy, running, so I think our best chance of holding onto that Senate seat in Florida is with Sen. Rubio running.”

Navigating Florida Republican politics is tricky.

In Rubio’s case, there’s the matter of the Republican primary and how many candidates are willing to follow Lopez-Cantera for the exits. Rep. David Jolly is likely to get out and Rep. Ron DeSantis might. But real estate developer Carlos Beruff, who is a wealthy self-funder, is among those that might not be dissuaded from running by Rubio’s change of heart.

There’s also the issue of whether Rubio and Gov. Rick Scott can get along. Scott is a big supporter of Trump; Rubio has had an on-again, off-again relationship with Trump since their fierce rivalry in the presidential race.

But looming above all of that is Rubio’s strained relationship with former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. The two former allies also brawled in the GOP presidential contest, and that led to a breakdown in support for Rubio among Bush loyalists in Florida, who had previously been big benefactors.

Whether the Florida Bushies sit on their hands or work hard for Rubio could impact his success in the primary and general election. Diaz Balart, who endorsed Bush over Rubio in the primary, said there’s no ill will between the two camps.

But a GOP operative in Florida who supported Bush said Rubio has some fence mending to do.

This Republican said there are still some Bush backers — donors, grassroots supporters and others — who weren’t happy with how Rubio and his supporters conducted themselves toward them and the governor, both during the campaign and after Bush dropped out.

“There is always an ability to rebuild some bridges,” this GOP operative said. “But you have to do it right away.”