Some important thoughts on the caucuses tonight: Voter turnout will be key. So will the youth vote. And the senior bloc. Women could well determine the winner. The on-the-ground organization will be crucial. So will the get-out-the-vote efforts. Blah, blah, blah. Wouldn’t it be great if political reporters without anything else to write on Election Day could just stipulate all of these things in one short paragraph? Or simply write a boilerplate article, leaving room for things like candidate’s names, that could be used year after year? Another staple of these pre-voting hours is predictions, even less valuable than the clichés that fill our newspapers and airwaves. In that spirit, here are mine. If they’re accurate or even close, it’s evidence that all of that time on the ground in Iowa has paid off. If they’re not, it’s further testament the fact that the caucus system makes prognostication difficult. As I’ve been saying for a while (but not nearly as long as the good Cardinal) I think Barack Obama will win and will do better than he’s polling. I won’t be surprised if he outperforms my guess below. This scenario is good for Obama (obviously), very bad for Hillary, and fatal for Edwards. Barack Obama, 31 Hillary Clinton, 25 John Edwards, 24 On the GOP side, I think Romney’s organization will matter but not as much as Huckabee’s continuing slide. The additional scrutiny on Huckabee’s record was inevitable and so was his tumble in the polls. Ron Paul’s better-than-expected showing will finally energize his lethargic supporters. Mitt Romney, 28 Mike Huckabee, 24 John McCain, 13 Fred Thompson, 13 Ron Paul, 12 Rudy Giuliani, 7
