This past Tuesday, Bill Kristol showed how it is in the self-interest of Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and John Kasich to focus their efforts strategically to maximize the chances of Rubio winning Florida and Kasich winning Ohio, thus denying Trump the delegates from these winner-take-all primaries on March 15. Thursday, Mitt Romney echoed this strategy when he stated, “I would vote for Marco Rubio in Florida, for John Kasich in Ohio, and for Ted Cruz or whichever one of the other two contenders has the best chance of beating Mr. Trump in a given state.” The strategy is sound, but it likely will not be enough. Simply refraining from actively campaigning or advocating strategic voting will not produce enough of an effect to significantly alter the race.
Cruz’s victories Saturday night in Kansas and Maine, while impressive, probably do not represent a significant shift in the trajectory of the race. Kansas and Maine were caucus states, where Cruz has tended to perform well. Kentucky and Louisiana, the two larger states, held primaries, and Trump won them both. Of the six delegate-awarding caucuses held so far, Cruz has won four, while Trump has won 11 of the 13 primaries, losing only in Texas (Cruz’s home state) and Oklahoma. The problem for Cruz is that of the remaining states, only Hawaii will be a caucus. All of the other state contests are primaries, with a number of them being winner-take-all.
Looking at the math, if the trajectory remains essentially unchanged, Trump will be our nominee. Trump could secure enough delegates to lock up the nomination by early May, despite a majority of Republican voters who do not want him to be the nominee.
To change the dynamic, bold action must be taken by Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich. In Florida, Cruz and Kasich should pull out of the primary, allowing Rubio to defeat Trump and secure all 99 of Florida’s delegates. In Ohio, Cruz and Rubio should pull out, allowing Kasich to defeat Trump and get all 66 of Ohio’s delegates. In Missouri, Kasich and Rubio should pull out, allowing Cruz to defeat Trump and get all 52 of Missouri’s delegates.
The net effect is Trump is denied 234 delegates, and without those delegates, it becomes much more difficult for him to gain the 1237 delegates necessary to secure the nomination before the convention. Meanwhile, Cruz, Kasich, and Rubio each gain on Trump and demonstrate both their electability and that Trump cannot gain the support of a majority of Republicans.
At first glance, asking Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich to withdraw from contests in the middle of the most hotly contested Republican primary in a generation seems insane. However, it is precisely in their best interest to do so. Indeed, the schedule is perfectly suited for such an arrangement. Incredibly, on March 15, both Rubio and Kasich face home state must-win winner-take-all primaries, and Missouri can effectively be converted into a winner-take-all state if only two candidates are on the ballot (Missouri is winner-take-all if one candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote). Thus, Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich have the opportunity to gain on Trump while not significantly changing the dynamic between each other.
For Marco Rubio, recent polls show him anywhere from 5 to 20 points behind Trump in Florida. If Rubio is to beat Trump, he needs to unite the anti-Trump vote, which means he needs help from Cruz, Kasich, and Carson supporters. Considering Rubio has no chance of winning Ohio, by adopting this strategy he would possibly be giving up a few delegates from Missouri, but this would be in exchange for the 99 Florida delegates and the talking point that one-on-one, he beats Trump.
For John Kasich, the latest Quinnipiac poll shows him trailing Trump 31 to 26. Kasich has a reasonable chance to win Ohio, but if he were to agree to the strategy and face Trump one-on-one, he would likely win by a wide margin. In a mirror image of Rubio’s position, Kasich has no chance of winning Florida, and he would possibly be giving up a few delegates from Missouri, but this would be in exchange for 66 Ohio delegates and the talking point that on-on-one he crushes Trump.
Ted Cruz’s motivation for following the strategy is the trickiest. While Kasich and Rubio are likely fighting now to live another day at a contested convention, Cruz sees a path to the nomination via the primaries. Cruz believes if he could just face Trump one-on-one, he could secure the nomination. However, to get to a one-on-one match, both Kasich and Rubio need to lose in their home states and then drop out (which they may refuse to do), but this would mean losing to a surging Trump with Trump receiving 165 more delegates from Florida and Ohio alone. Cruz could finally have his one-on-one match with Trump starting with the March 22nd primaries, but he would likely find himself behind Trump in the delegate count around 400 to 800 with the remaining primaries including New York and multiple non-winner-take-all states. In this scenario, preventing Trump from getting another 400 or so delegates to achieve the 1237 delegates needed to wrap up the nomination would be extremely difficult.
On the other hand, if Cruz agrees to the strategy and helps Rubio and Kasich secure victories in Florida and Ohio, and transforms Missouri into a winner-take-all victory, Cruz could be a close second going into a contested convention with a majority of the delegates fervently anti-Trump. Moreover, if Rubio and/or Kasich fail to defeat Trump on March 15, Cruz would still be in a better position than if he hadn’t participated, since he would have gotten Rubio and Kasich to pull out of the Missouri primary.
United, Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich can each say that they are withdrawing so that each candidate can be tested against Trump in one-on-one match-ups. Under such reasoning, they should urge their supporters to still vote in their respective primaries and to vote for the candidate on their ballot that they believe is best suited to be president. Each can tell his supporters that doing so is the best course of action to ensure that they get a chance to vote for him in November.
