Despite a drop in enthusiasm since he announced his second White House run, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is enjoying one of the most solid bases of support in the 2020 Democratic primary race. That’s potentially bad news for his chief rival on the left flank, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
A November Harvard-Harris poll had Sanders at 21%, behind former Joe Biden with 28%, nearly six months before the former vice president even entered the race.
A December Emerson poll released the following month showed Sanders’ support at 22%. Right after Sanders entered the race in February, his second straight bid, three Politico/Morning Consult polls released that month and March showed his numbers reaching as high as 27% — just four points behind Biden.
But Sanders cratered in mid-April, around the time Biden joined the race. Since then, Sanders has dropped to the mid-to-high-teens. Only one mainstream poll — released by Emerson last month — showed him breaking 20%. That Emerson survey had him at 24%.
Warren stood to be the beneficiary of Sanders’ fall in support. A left-wing populist compared to Sanders’ socialist mantle, Warren’s campaign could expect to win many voters who had fallen away from her rival.
Sanders’ stagnation in the polls has clearly come at Warren’s gain, particularly as she echoes Sanders’ policy prescriptions including “Medicare for all” and heavy taxes on the wealthy. Warren has steadily risen in surveys of Democratic voters with a number of them showing her overtaking Sanders for the number two slot in the primary.
Since July 21, Warren has over 20 different polls showing her in a statistical tie or leading Sanders, whereas Sanders has only 12 where he leads Warren by more than a point.
[Also read: New Hampshire Democratic convention chance for Warren to rise in Granite State]
At the same time, Warren has been busy courting liberal activists who were energized by Sanders’ run in 2016. In July, Sanders decided to skip the annual Netroots Nation conference in Philadelphia.
A straw poll released at the end of the conference asking attendees who would drop out next found Biden leading with Sanders in second. Not a single attendee chose Warren or California Sen. Kamala Harris.
That same month, the progressive advocacy group Democracy for America released a survey of its members showing Warren within six points of Sanders at 26%. In April, Sanders led Warren by over 30%.
That’s all bad news for Sanders.
“Both Warren and Sanders are circling and waiting to see how Biden handles the race,” said Jim Manley, a former senior Democratic Senate leadership aide. “Bernie’s strategy is the same as 2016: good ol’ smashmouth politics. Whether he can get it if Warren is in the race is another question.”
Polls from July through August show that both Sanders and Warren’s combined support is enough to beat Biden, yet it’s becoming increasingly obvious that either will have a hard time overtaking the former vice president as the other stays in the race.
Democratic insiders say Warren’s ascendance means there will be increasing pressure on Sanders to drop out by New Hampshire in order to ensure an alternative to Biden can coalesce support before he runs away with the nomination.
“Bernie has a low floor and a low ceiling. There’s going to be activist groups calling on Bernie to drop out. The only way one of them can catch Biden is for the other to drop out,” Democratic strategist Brad Bannon said. “Progressive groups will side with Warren eventually.”
Manley said that’s unlikely.
“It’s very obvious Sanders is in this race for the long haul,” he said. “I know the guy, he thinks he can win. If you ask me how he’s going to adjust, he’s just not going to.”
