Political groups aligned with Sen. Mitch McConnell are amassing a $190 million war chest as the Senate majority leader and allies warn Republican donors, amid an impeachment inquiry into President Trump, that a GOP Senate is the only reliable defense against Democrats sweeping in 2020.
Senate Leadership Fund and One Nation have emerged as the primary source of outside air cover for Senate Republicans. The super PAC and its affiliated nonprofit are central to McConnell’s strategy to protect his three-seat majority against the specter of impeachment and insulate vulnerable Republicans from Democratic challenges. And, in conversations with GOP contributors about the two groups, McConnell and his boosters are pitching the Senate as the party’s insurance policy for a Trump defeat.
“Our investors understand the Senate is the ultimate firewall against socialism, and we are gearing up for a massive fight next year. The Supreme Court, Green New Deal, Medicare for None — it’s all going to be on the line,” McConnell confidant Steven Law, who runs Senate Leadership Fund, said in a statement provided to the Washington Examiner.
Publicly, many Senate Republicans are ridiculing the impeachment inquiry, initiated this month by Democrats in the House of Representatives. But privately, they recognize the political uncertainty of the investigation, and worry it could imperil Trump’s reelection and expose their majority. The caution is warranted. In the past month, support for Trump’s impeachment has increased 4.3 percentage points among Republicans, 15.2 points among independents and 13.7 points among Democrats.
To compensate against further deterioration, Senate Leadership Fund and One Nation have budgeted approximately $190 million to protect McConnell’s most endangered incumbents: Sen. Susan Collins of Maine; Sen. Cory Gardner of Colorado; appointed Sen. Martha McSally of Arizona; Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina — and Sens. Joni Ernst of Iowa and David Perdue of Georgia if they need the help. McConnell is up for reelection in Kentucky but does not appear immediately threatened.
McConnell and his allied groups also are keeping an eye on an open seat in Kansas and an expected special election in Georgia to replace Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson, who is resigning in December. At this early stage, they appear most anxious about Gardner, who is running in a state that is basically blue in presidential elections. The first-term senator could receive more resources from McConnell’s allied groups than any other individual GOP senator.
“Cory Gardner is the Claire McCaskill if the cycle: he’ll do everything right, have the money and still lose,” said Dan Eberhart, a Republican donor who has contributed to Trump and the party’s Senate effort. McCaskill, a Democrat, lost reelection in Missouri last year largely because the former swing state is now red.
Unlike Senate Democrats, who enjoy support from a constellation of liberal interest groups, the Republicans’ only reliable partners other than the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the party’s Senate campaign arm, are Senate Leadership Fund and One Nation. That has concerned some Republican insiders, who fret about the party’s ability to keep vulnerable GOP senators afloat as they absorb early rounds of attack advertising from Democratic groups.
However, if Trump is in trouble down the stretch next year, after the Democrats crown a presidential nominee, Republican insiders expect money to pour into the McConnell-aligned groups in a bid to ensure that at least one sector of government power in D.C. stays in GOP hands.
“SLF might be only group we talk about,” a Republican lobbyist said. “But if Trump looks in trouble and can’t win a second term, there will be more money than god that pours into Senate races.”
