After a month of overt Taliban control over the settled district of Swat in Pakistan’s turbulent Northwest frontier Province, the Pakistani military announced that it has begun the ground assault to retake the district. The Daily Times reports:
Prior to the beginning of this ground offensive, the Pakistani military relied on artillery and air strikes to target Taliban positions. The military claims over 150 Taliban were killed in the past month, but the Taliban puts the numbers below 20. The Pakistani military is notorious for inflating enemy casualties and deflating its own. After one month of fighting in Swat, the government can claim some small success. The military is touting the retaking of checkpoints and hilltops overlooking towns. This is a poor counterinsurgency strategy and speaks volumes about the military’s inability to wage war against the Taliban within its own borders. The military has also blockaded food, medical supplies, and other vital aid to the regions controlled by the Taliban, punishing civilians caught behind Pakistani lines. The military has only now started to jam Taliban leader Maulana Fazlullah’s jihadi radio channel, which has incited supporters to fight the government. Despite the start of this long awaited offensive, the government has signaled throughout the standoff it was willing to cut a deal. The provincial government is forming a “peace jirga”–or tribal meeting–to resolve the situation. The governor has repeatedly said force was the option of last resort–he is looking for a political solution. But most importantly, the government released Sufi Mohammed, one of the most dangerous Taliban leaders in the Northwest Frontier Province. As head of the outlawed Tehrik-e-Nifaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM – the Movement for the Implementation of Mohammad’s Sharia Law), also known as the “Pakistani Taliban,” he sent over 10,000 fighters into Afghanistan to fight U.S. forces during Operation Enduring Freedom in October 2001. Sufi was jailed by the Pakistani government after the TNSM was banned. Pakistani military leaders believe Sufi’s release will appease the Taliban and end the fighting. Sufi’s release was endorsed by General Ahmed Shuja Pasha, the director general of military operations in the region. “Shuja calls [Sufi’s release] part of the ‘political effort’ needed to accompany the military campaign,” Time reported the day Sufi was released. “Brute use of force alone would only take us backwards,” said Shuja. If the government’s past actions in the Northwest Frontier Province are any indicator, the government’s likely course of action will be to claim some sort of military success in Swat and then sit down with the Taliban and cut a “peace deal,” as it did in North and South Waziristan and Bajaur.
