China plans to link Afghanistan to the Belt and Road Initiative as the withdrawal of NATO forces from the country clears the way for Beijing’s return to one of the ancient Silk Road nations.
“China is interested in extending BRI, as it believes there are enough natural resources to be exploited and taken back to China, but has been wary so far due to instability and insecurity,” an Indo-Pacific official told the Washington Examiner.
Speaking at a trilateral meeting earlier this week between China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi put an explicit emphasis on Beijing’s signature economic plan, telling his counterparts that “the three countries should deepen high-quality Belt and Road cooperation.”
Western officials regard the initiative as a “predatory” economic scheme, but the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO troops from Afghanistan could enhance China’s clout in the country, although violence between the Taliban and the U.S.-backed government, as well as other terrorist groups, could imperil new arrangements.
“It suits both China and Pakistan if it happens, but there are risks, as the China model is under severe criticism globally as a debt-diplomacy model. So, if they follow the same path in Afghanistan, it will bring further criticism, and an already poor country, Afghanistan, will be pushed further deep into debt,” the official said. “The Afghans do not have the luxury of saying ‘no,’ but are not great fans of China.”
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Afghanistan has a wealth of natural resources, including a treasure trove of rare-earth metals needed for high-tech manufacturing. Chinese officials even have signaled an interest in restricting U.S. access to the metals in order to impede U.S. construction of the F-35 stealth fighter jet.
“The first thing I think is ‘good luck,’” the American Enterprise Institute’s Zack Cooper said. “I think the Chinese are putting a lot of money into some countries that are probably going to [offer a] relatively low return on investment.”
Pakistan is widely perceived as having undermined U.S. efforts to defeat the Taliban and establish a stable government. The looming U.S. exit, however, deprives regional powers of the protection afforded by the American counterterrorism operations.
“There is a lot of fear right now in Pakistan,” Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan said in an interview Friday. “Since the moment the Americans gave a date, of when they were going to leave Afghanistan … the Taliban feel they have won the war.”
As U.S. troops withdraw, China and Pakistan plan to “welcome the Taliban back to the political mainstream,” according to a readout released by the Chinese diplomatic corps. Such a political agreement might allow China to establish an economic foothold in the country.
“We can expand China-Pakistan Economic Corridor cooperation to Afghanistan and improve the level of trade cooperation and interconnection between Afghanistan and other countries in the region,” Wang said, per the South China Morning Post.
Chinese officials want to run a railway from China to Pakistani ports on the Arabian Sea. That connection would allow China to import oil from the Middle East without having to ship it by sea to eastern China. That sea route passes through the Strait of Malacca, a narrow shipping lane between Indonesia and Singapore that China fears could be closed by the United States in a conflict.
Pakistani officials reportedly have worried that the U.S.-backed government in Kabul will align too closely with India, which is both Pakistan’s traditional adversary and a central figure in U.S. efforts to counter China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific.
“The U.S. might look at BRI less critically in return for China’s and Pakistan’s cooperation in helping maintain some stability, through influence on [the] Taliban and China spending more on economic projects,” the Indo-Pacific official said. “I am pessimistic about China’s interest and ability to do much constructively inside Afghanistan. However, on behalf of Pakistan, they are prepared to try in order to reduce influence of India.”
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With that in mind, China’s involvement in Afghanistan may contribute to the hardening divide between New Delhi and Beijing.
“There’s no good outcome here for the Indians,” Cooper said. “The more you see the Chinese and the Pakistanis working together in Afghanistan, I think you’re going to find the Indians are going to get much, much more concerned, pretty quickly.”
