Iran is manipulating international nuclear talks to buy time for its weapons research, according to U.S. allies monitoring the need for a military strike against the regime.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s team has conducted extensive “indirect talks” with Iran about a joint return to the 2015 nuclear deal, which former President Donald Trump exited in 2018. The continuing progress of Iran’s nuclear program has forced Israeli and Gulf Arab officials to acknowledge in public the possibility of a clash with Iran if a deal is not reached — and another major U.S. ally is warning that Tehran doesn’t want to come to an agreement.
“I don’t think the Supreme Leader of Iran wants to cut a deal,” MI6 Chief Richard Moore said Thursday at the Aspen Security Forum. “The Iranians won’t want to end the talks either, so they could run on for a bit.”
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Iranian officials claim they have acquired “the technical means to produce a nuclear bomb,” although they deny any intention of doing so. They have continued their illicit nuclear activities throughout the oft-stalled negotiations over the last year, which has spurred other Middle Eastern states to prepare for a possible war.
“We all see Iran’s malign activities in the region and elsewhere. Now, they’re doing all that without having a nuclear canopy deterrence to support it,” Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz said Thursday during his appearance at the forum. “Now, should we jump to a war at the first opportunity we have? No. Should we be able to conduct a military operation to prevent it if needed? The answer is yes. Are we building the ability? Yes. Should we use it? As the last [resort], yes.”
The threat posed by Iran has driven Israel and key Gulf Arab states into closer alignment in recent years, most openly through the Jewish state’s signing of the Abraham Accords with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. That relationship could lay the basis for a united military front against Iran if the Arab and Israeli leaders conclude that the talks have dragged out beyond their tolerance for risk.
“What if one day all of us wake up to the news that Iran has tested its first nuclear weapon and face it as the reality?” Bahraini Undersecretary for Political Affairs Abdulla al Khalifa, who followed Gantz at the forum, told the Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg. “So I believe addressing the issue now, when there is an opportunity, is much better than addressing it later, when it’s too late.”
Asked whether Bahrain would advise “preemptive military action” against Iran, al Khalifa made a point of being ambiguous while emphasizing the security risks that could arise if Tehran’s nuclear program is not constrained.
“Obviously, dealing with the matter diplomatically would be a priority,” he said. “We have seen how the Iranian regime is ignoring the current efforts and respecting what it should abide by. But we do believe [we know what] the continuous developing of the nuclear program in Iran would cause the region, and it would affect obviously its neighbors in a very dramatic manner.”
Gantz took some consolation in President Joe Biden’s statement that the United States “will not allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon,” as he emphasized during a trip to Israel.
“We’ve laid out for the leadership of Iran what we’re willing to accept in order to get back in the JCPOA,” Biden said, using the acronym for the official name of the 2015 deal. “We’re waiting for their response. When that will come, I’m not certain. But we are not going to wait forever.”
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Moore, the British spy chief, made clear what he expects the Iranian answer to be. “I’m skeptical that the supreme leader will go for the deal,” he said Thursday. “I think the deal is absolutely on the table … but I don’t think the Iranians want it.”
