President Trump’s reelection campaign is feeling pressure on the issue of climate change. It plans to adopt pro-environment messaging to win key states such as Florida and appease important voter demographics that are moving toward Democrats.
The campaign is responding to consistent polling that shows young people and suburban swing voters are increasingly concerned about climate change and its effects on extreme weather.
“Republicans may not be able to grow their base in 2020, but they can’t afford to lose any voters,” said Dan Eberhart, CEO of the oil services firm Canary and a Trump donor. “The voting block that’s at biggest risk is educated suburban women who have been turned off by Trump. GOP polling shows that they care about climate.”
The campaign is also reacting to pressure from Republicans in Congress who have sought to propose their own agenda to counter the Green New Deal, which could be overshadowed by Trump’s rhetoric expressing skepticism of climate change.
“The campaign definitely needs to recognize that people are concerned about climate change and develop reasonable, effective ways to address the issue,” said a Trump campaign adviser.
Still, the Trump administration will not diverge over the next year from its policy agenda of boosting fossil fuel production and easing regulations. It also won’t be introducing any significant policies to combat climate change to match or counter Democratic opponents’ aggressive plans to eliminate coal, oil, and gas to reach net-zero emissions by midcentury.
“They are trying to put lipstick on a pig,” said former Republican Rep. Carlos Curbelo of Florida, who lost a blue-leaning district in 2018 while promoting an aggressive environmental agenda. “The president’s policies result in more carbon pollution. You can say nice things and say you are for clean air, clear water, and apple pie, but the truth is in the math.”
The administration is instead shifting how it talks about climate change, while the campaign looks to promote other aspects of its environmental record that cover more traditional agenda items, such as cleaning up toxic waste sites and combating lead in drinking water.
“It’s hard to fight something with nothing,” said Mandy Gunasekara, a former senior EPA official in the Trump administration who runs Energy 45, a nonprofit organization she established to support the president’s energy agenda. “The challenge for the campaign is to explain Republicans do have something. There is a goal to focus more on the positive story. This isn’t reinventing the policy or legal wheel.”
The Trump campaign is publicly reluctant to acknowledge any new strategy or shift in emphasis.
“President Trump continues to advance realistic solutions to reduce emissions while unleashing American energy like never before,” said Sarah Matthews, the campaign’s deputy press secretary, who went on to attack the “radical” Green New Deal.
Trump is sensitive to criticism that he is waffling on any issue that registers with his conservative base. He barely addressed climate change in the 2016 campaign, and he frequently mocks it at rallies, attacking windmills and accusing Democrats of threatening U.S. prosperity by proposing big spending programs.
“The big question would be: How can they shift in a way that doesn’t look like the president is flipping for pure political reasons, and how do they shift in a way that works not just for the president, but the base?” said a former Trump administration official.
Conservative allies and fossil fuel industry supporters would prefer that Trump didn’t change anything about his stance and rhetoric on climate change, deeming it an unnecessary cave given how little environmental issues mattered in 2016.
“Maybe the campaign tries to throw some softballs on his teleprompter, but I don’t see it being a change in strategy or policy in terms of what they are trying to achieve,” said Tom Pyle, president of American Energy Alliance and Trump’s former Energy Department transition chief. “I doubt suburban women voters are going to say, ‘I can plug my nose on these disgusting tweets, but he is so wrong on climate I can’t vote for him.'”
Trump administration officials and campaign consultants who want to see a more proactive approach to climate change and environmental issues insist the president will do more to communicate his support of private sector innovation to reduce emissions.
“There is no question, once you have a nominee on the Left, we will draw a contrast,” said a person familiar with the campaign’s thinking. “This is a motivating and powerful issue for them. It clearly is an issue that motivates a lot of Democrats, and we have seen it with some Republicans and independents. We want to showcase the cost of Democratic policies and contrast that with jobs created by the president’s policies.”
Supporters are also picking up on recent changes in the president and his administration’s language on climate change and broader environmental issues.
Trump delivered a speech in July defending his environmental record — without mentioning climate change but touting reductions in U.S. carbon emissions over the last decade, which have been driven by a market shift from coal to natural gas and renewables. Emissions rose in 2018.
He emphasized his work to confront environmental problems affecting Florida — a state vulnerable to higher sea levels and key to Trump’s reelection — noting his funding to restore the Everglades and fight toxic red algal blooms.
“If there’s a shift, it’s going to be all about Florida,” said the former Trump administration official.
There are other examples of Trump and his administration moderating their tone. Trump referenced climate change when he toured flooding in Houston in September, for instance, and the United States pledged in October to work with Finland to help address climate challenges caused by the melting of sea ice in the Arctic.
Trump, however, is facing pressure to do more.
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy has ordered the Republican conference to develop a political strategy on how to address climate change to help win back control of the chamber, his office told the Washington Examiner. The effort is being spearheaded by Republicans on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s Select Climate Crisis Committee. Republican leaders foresee the strategy being a blueprint for Trump to follow.
“The House conference is working on a political strategy that would help build a consensus on climate change which would include the most conservative wing of the party,” said a person familiar with GOP thinking. “We are changing the narrative that we are not doing anything on climate.”
McCarthy told the Washington Examiner last month that House Republicans are planning to package a series of bills addressing climate change that follow conservative, free-market principles while rejecting Democratic proposals.
“Let’s have that debate instead of everybody saying we’re just deniers,” said McCarthy, a close ally to Trump who represents a rural district in California, among the most aggressive states in fighting climate change.
A few conservative groups that favor major legislation to address climate change have provided McCarthy’s staff with polling showing Republicans risk losing young voters if they don’t address climate change.
“We need to have an open discussion about what should the party look like 20 years from now, and we should be a little nervous,” McCarthy said.
Polling also shows worrying signs for Trump to win back suburban voters in districts that flipped from Republican in 2016 to Democrat in the 2018 midterm elections.
The conservative clean energy group ClearPath Action surveyed in July voters in congressional districts that moved from Republican to Democrat in 2018, which have more suburban voters compared to “safe” GOP seats.
The survey of 700 voters in these districts, obtained by the Washington Examiner, found that 49% say climate change is “very important” to address. 53% said they are “strongly supportive” of clean energy, including nuclear, wind, solar, and other non-fossil fuel technologies, while 61% said they would be more likely to vote for a Republican who supports clean energy.
Other polls have found Republican base voters don’t care much about climate change, and even Democrats and independents are reluctant to expend significant resources to address it.
But in a close election, a polarizing issue like climate change could make a difference.
“We are talking about the small percentage of swing voters in Florida and throughout the country who will actually decide the election,” Curbelo said. “This is an issue that will feature prominently in the 2020 election where it did not in 2016. There is little question about that, and Republicans know it.”
