Red Massachusetts?

Don’t know whether you saw the news that Scott Brown’s state senate seat was won handily by a Republican in a special election.   That is bigger news than it might seem, and has many smart Democrats very worried about November.  You see, Scott’s seat was by no means a safe Republican seat (there is no such thing in Massachusetts).  It’s true he was elected 3 times, but his long-term predecessor was a generically liberal Democrat.   In sum, this suburban/exurban district is by no means part of the Bible Belt.   And Richard Ross, the Republican, won with 62% of the vote. There are, of course, always other explanations.  The Democratic nominee won the nomination after a bitter primary, and maybe the fans of his opponent just sat on their hands.   But the fact is that there really is a Democratic machine in this state (and only a nominal Republican organization), so a “normal” special election should tilt toward the Democrats.   With a weak incumbent Governor (whose best chance for survival is that his two opponents running against him from the right will split the vote), it’s possible that 2010 could see a sea change in Massachusetts politics.  On the state level, there are numerous open seats in the legislature and strong Republican candidates for State Treasurer and State Auditor.  And on the congressional level, I would not discount at least the following candidates: Jon Golnik (against Niki Tsongas), Jeff Perry or Joe Malone (for Bill Delahunt’s open seat), and Sean Bielat (taking on Barney Frank). And if that’s what Massachusetts looks like, the first Tuesday in November could see a red tide across the country.