Rich Lowry posts what he calls a “shrewd” email on Republican positioning on the economy.
It would be a blunder of the highest order for the Republicans to make the case that the economy won’t recover if Obama persists with his policies. The credit markets have improved dramatically, the economy will recover late this year and the jobs will start coming in the spring. Obama will claim credit and blame those awful Hooveresque Republicans for trying to stand in the way of recovery. The Republicans should right now be saying that the economy is going to recovery despite of Obama’s spending; both because of the actions that the Fed has taken to help heal the credit markets and because of the inherent dynamism of the economy itself (throw in something about hard working American workers and entrepreneurs). The GOP should focus on restraining spending, preventing tax hikes and calling attention to the unnecessary fiscal hole that the President and Congress have blown into the nation’s fiscal position. They should also make the case that the tradeoff of high Obama spending and inevitable huge tax increases will not help the economy in the long term. But again, it’s a mistake for the GOP to go out there and ask “where are the jobs Mr. President?” every month. If that’s all they have to say, it will be a rough 2010. If on the other hand, harping on the weak economy is a way of drawing attention to the fact that the President isn’t focused on the voters’ primary concern right now, fair enough. But the GOP should be anticipating the economic rebound and planning its tactics accordingly.
I’m not sure I agree with his correspondent’s thoughts on the timing of the full recovery, but the broad analysis strikes me as smart. It is indisputable that the credit markets have “improved dramatically,” and there are many reasons to believe that such a recovery is on the way. Scott Grannis, whose blog is terrific on these matters, thinks we may already be there. “We have definitely seen the worst of the economy, and I would be very surprised if the economy has not been in recovery mode for the past month or two.” Why does he say this? See here, here, and here for just a few examples.
