DETROIT — Post-Super Tuesday polling has Joe Biden with a substantial advantage over Bernie Sanders on the eve of elections in Michigan.
Biden has the support of 51% of likely Democratic primary voters in Michigan, according to a Monmouth University Poll released Monday afternoon. The Vermont senator, in turn, has 36% of the vote in a must-win state if he wants to stay in the party’s race for the White House.
While 2% remain undecided and 6% will cast their ballot for uncommitted delegates, 17% have already voted for candidates who have dropped out of the contest, the public opinion survey found.
Biden leads Sanders with white Democrats and minority voters. Although the former Burlington mayor beats Biden with Democrats younger than 50 and men, the two-term vice president and 36-year Delaware senator wins with Democrats older than 50 and women by a greater margin.
The only demographic where voters are split between the pair are those who self-identify as independents or Republicans. Biden, 77, dominates with those who think of themselves as Democrats.
“Biden appears to have the advantage because he is doing well among some groups that Sanders won four years ago. But as we learned in 2016, Michigan can defy expectations,” Patrick Murray, Monmouth University Polling Institute’s director, said.
On Monday morning, a Detroit Free Press/EPIC-MRA Michigan poll put Biden with 51% support and Sanders at 27%. RealClearPolitics data now has Biden ahead by an average of 25.3 percentage points.
Yet political observers are cautious about the results.
In the weeks prior to the 2016 head-to-head between Sanders and then-rival Hillary Clinton, the former first lady, New York senator, and secretary of state had a 10 to 27 percentage point lead on him. Sanders, 78, however, won the clash by a little more than a percentage point, reinvigorating his presidential campaign.
The Monmouth University Poll was conducted among 411 likely Democratic primary voters over the phone between March 5 through March 8. Its findings have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.
