As 2019 draws to a close, President Trump faces many of the same vexing national security problems he encountered when he took the oath of office nearly three years ago. Although Trump’s policies represent a dramatic departure from the Obama years in both style and substance, so far, progress has been frustratingly slow on many fronts. Here is an interim year report card on where things stand as we look ahead to the 2020 election.
North Korea
The goal: The complete, verifiable, and irreversible denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, as stated by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
The progress to date: Trump took office with a pledge to replace President Barack Obama’s policy of “strategic patience” with one of “maximum pressure.” In his first year in office, as North Korea steadily tested more long-range missiles and increasingly powerful nuclear bombs, Trump’s response was a volley of threats, including that the U.S. military was “locked and loaded” and that North Korea would face “fire and fury like the world has never seen.”
The president had two historic summits and three face-to-face meetings with Kim Jong Un, with Trump offering goodwill gestures, including the cancellation and downgrading of joint U.S. and South Korean military exercises. But promises of a brighter economic future for North Korea have failed to entice Kim into taking any concrete steps demonstrating a serious intention to give up his nuclear arsenal.
Trump cites the return of U.S. remains from the Korean War, the release of American prisoners, North Korea’s temporary moratorium on weapons testing, and the fact that no war has broken out as real achievements.
Meanwhile, North Korea says it has lost patience with the lack of any creative proposals from the United States and is promising to end its waiting in the new year.
The grade: D. Although tensions have eased in the past year, almost no progress has been made in achieving the overarching goal of denuclearization.
Iran
The goal: To force through crippling sanctions and get Iran to return to talks aimed at securing a better nuclear deal that includes limits on long-range missiles and Iran’s support of terrorism.
The progress to date: Since Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal supported by six world powers last year, U.S.-imposed sanctions have devastated Iran’s economy and stirred up civil unrest. Protests over rising gas prices resulted in a deadly government crackdown, killing hundreds of Iranian demonstrators.
But the economic pain inflicted by the United States has so far left Iran’s leaders bloodied but unbowed and showing no sign of willingness to renegotiate the nuclear deal or curb their malign activities in the region.
Iran shot down a $130 million U.S. spy drone the size of an airliner. It conducted a drone and missile strike against Saudi oil facilities, both actions with no military response from Trump, aside from sending more “defensive” troops to the region.
In response, Iran has begun taking steps to restart its uranium enrichment program, which could put it on a path to develop nuclear weapons.
The grade: D-. Although the U.S. maximum pressure effort is hurting Iran, it so far has made no discernible progress in achieving any of the 12 goals Pompeo laid out in a speech last year.
Afghanistan
The goal: To broker a deal with the Taliban that will lead to peace talks with the U.S.-backed Afghan government and allow the withdrawal of all but a small number of U.S. troops, ending more than 18 years of war.
The progress to date: In a Thanksgiving visit to U.S. troops at the Bagram Airbase outside the Afghan capital of Kabul, Trump announced that talks were back on with the Taliban. It came after he scuttled a draft withdrawal plan painstakingly negotiated by his special representative Zalmay Khalilzad because, while it called for a reduction in violence, it did not include a ceasefire.
In September, Trump abruptly canceled a secret meeting with the Taliban after the groups claimed to have been behind an attack that killed a U.S. soldier.
“They didn’t want to do a ceasefire, but now they do want to do a ceasefire,” Trump told the troops. “It will probably work out that way. … We’ve made tremendous progress.”
The grade: C. Since the president’s pronouncement, Zalmay Kalilizad has been dispatched to restart talks with the Taliban who have so far shown no willingness to agree to a ceasefire.
Military Spending
The goal: To rebuild the military and restore readiness that had declined precipitously over the previous six years because of congressionally imposed spending caps, along with the demands of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Progress to date: Trump succeeded where Obama failed, mainly because the Republican majority in Congress, in support of its newly elected president, did something it was unwilling to do during Obama’s two terms: It compromised with the Democrats in a deal that traded support for increases in domestic spending in return for higher military budgets.
As a result, Trump was able to secure $700 billion in defense spending in his first year and $716 billion in his second. The increases were enough for the Pentagon to replenish munitions stocks, resume full training schedules, expand the size of the force, and invest in new technologies such as hypersonic and artificial intelligence.
But in his third year, Trump’s use of military construction money to fund sections of his border wall infuriated Democrats, who are now refusing to compromise on wall funding. They are holding up a budget bill and preventing the Pentagon from getting billions in additional money already agreed upon for this year.
The grade: B. Trump gets credit for fully funding the Pentagon, but he loses a grade for failing to use his considerable dealmaking skills to support his border priorities without holding up appropriations that are desperately needed by the Pentagon.
