Kristol on Today Show

KRISTOL: “There is no question that security is better in much of the country and there’s no question that from the ground up, there is political progress. The flip in Anbar province where the Sunni Tribes have joined us and have basically expelled al-Qaeda from what was their stronghold is impressive. We are defeating al-Qaeda. The Shi’ite militia are a bigger problem. The national political situation is a big problem. But it can only be addressed as security continues to improve. And as the NIE released yesterday says it can’t be addressed, the political situation, if we start to withdraw.” LAUER: “That’s true. And I want to talk about this National Intelligence Estimate and I want to start by saying because I think you are very right to point out that they say we can see more chaos if we pull our troops out now. But they do seem to differ with you on a couple of key points: very little hope for reconciliation among the feuding factions within Iraq, overall violence remains at a very high level, the Iraqi government will become more precarious over the next six to twelve months, they say that Iraqi political leaders remain unable to govern effectively, and they say al-Qaeda in Iraq retains the ability to conduct high profile attacks. Are they looking at the same country that you just saw?” KRISTOL: “Sure. They say that al-Qaeda is weaker than it was. The national political leadership is really challenged. If we can provide continued increased security, they will have to step up to the plate. But the only way to get them to improve, maybe Maliki will be removed by the parliamentary system that Iraq has. But the only way that we can have a peaceful transition over there and actually achieve political progress is by continuing to provide more security. I think that’s what the National Intelligence Estimate says.” LAUER: “But it paints a much more pessimistic picture than you just painted for me.” KRISTOL: “I don’t agree with that. People should read the Estimate. It’s a four-page summary, declassified findings. And frankly the reporting on it has been misleading, people can go online and read the estimate themselves. I urge them to do so.” LAUER: “So you think most people if they read the entire Estimate, they are going to come away thinking things are going better in Iraq?” KRISTOL: “Things are going better enough that we should sustain the current strategy, which is working. Look at everybody’s predictions in January, ‘Oh the surge, how ridiculous you can’t improve security. Anbar province, that was supposed to be lost, you can’t get the Sunnis to cooperate. Parts of Baghdad that were in terrible shape, you can’t improve the situation there.’ It is improving, no one really doubts that. Is it improving fast enough? We can debate that. But I think the President has an awfully strong case to say, ‘Give me six more months’, basically continue Petraeus’ strategy, let’s see where we are in the spring.”