The Cardinal has landed in New Hampshire. While the media pack stayed in Iowa for caucus night, I left Des Moines early to avoid the crowds and get a jump in the Granite State. (And I’ve known for a year that Obama would win – OK, that’ll be the last insufferable “told you so” posting on the blog. I was wrong in two respects: I predicted a 7 point win for Obama, and he won by 8 points. Plus I had Huckabee only winning by one point, and I was way off on that one.) Anyway, some early thoughts from my poking around the snow up here and surveying some old pro buddies. McCain is doing very well. Just how badly Romney has been hurt on the New Hampshire ground by his weak result in Iowa is yet to be really measured. The weekend will tell and the debates tonight and Sunday are important. Huckabee has the potential to get a good bounce here as well; more than the media might expect. He might even make second place, which would give him more bounce. Fred Thompson seems to be making no effort here beyond attending the debates. Rumors abound that his campaign is flat broke. Rudy Giuliani is back in New Hampshire, sporting a Florida tan and no real argument anymore about how he can win, beyond the madness of losing the first half dozen contests and then surging to total victory. (Ironically, Team Hillary is starting to adopt the same dead-cat-a-bouncing spin; they can lose here and in South Carolina but surge later because … um, why was that again?) Obama is drawing big crowds and the deep hatred of Hillary Clinton. I think Obama will surge to victory here as well. One story told to me by a local voter: His son, 19, is a first time Democratic voter. He has received three calls from the Obama campaign. Today, two young, polite, and well trained Obama volunteers appeared at their house asking for the son, who was not home. The Obama volunteers had a list with the names of every 18- and 19-year-old first-time voter in the neighborhood and were canvassing door to door with materials and a strong pitch to close the deal. Meanwhile, my friend’s son has received no communications from the Clinton campaign of any kind. He is voting for Obama. But the weekend is still early and New Hampshire moves fast. I’m slipping off my red Galero and heading off to take the pulse at the Puritan Backroom; a well known haunt for the cagey fixers, fuglemen, bagmen, and turn-out-the-voter strong-arm specialists of Manchester city politics.
