Joe Biden finally found his footing on Super Tuesday, besting Bernie Sanders in 10 of 14 states. But he has a long way to go to clinch the Democratic presidential nomination.
To win the right to take on President Trump, the former vice president must keep up his energy and aura of momentum and avoid another nasty 2016-like primary fight against socialist Sanders.
“He has to keep doing what he’s been doing to a large extent. Be a good politician. Work networks of relationships,” said George Mason University political science professor Jeremy Mayer.
Sanders asserted Wednesday that corporate forces and an insider party establishment are what is leading Biden to victory, but Biden coalesced centrist support largely because he proved to be hugely popular with black voters.
Black voters led Biden to victory in South Carolina, prompting other candidates to drop out and then endorse him, creating a wave of earned media momentum that brought out voters on Super Tuesday. He won by double digits over Sanders in Virginia, North Carolina, Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Oklahoma (which Sanders won in 2016).
Exit polls in Super Tuesday states showed that Biden had a 41-point lead with black voters. He also won voters older than 45, white voters, college-educated voters, and those who decided whom to vote for in the last few days.
Biden’s advantage with black voters is poised to boost his odds of winning a large chunk of Southern delegates, such as Georgia’s 105 delegates on March 24 and Mississippi’s 36 delegates on March 10.
“In every year since 1968, with one exception, the winner of the Democratic nomination has been the one favorited by African Americans,” Mayer said. “It’s what killed Sanders in 2016. It’s what killed him on Super Tuesday — wasn’t money. It wasn’t media. It was his weakness with African American voters.”
Biden and his campaign proclaim that he is rebuilding President Barack Obama’s winning electoral coalition.
“He showed tonight that he is the only candidate tonight that can put together the Obama-Biden coalition,” top Biden aide Kate Bedingfield said on CNN early Wednesday morning.
The challenge for Biden, though, is that Sanders has the most support from the other half of the Obama coalition: young voters and Hispanic voters.
Sanders had a 43-point lead with voters aged 18 to 29, an 18-point lead with those 30 to 44, and a 9-point advantage over Biden with Hispanic and Latino voters. His advantage in those groups led the Associated Press to call California for Sanders as soon as polls closed.
Instead, Biden’s base of support looks more like what Hillary Clinton had in 2016.
Super Tuesday delegate allocation is still being calculated, but the New York Times projects that Biden will have a slight lead over Sanders — with both of them around one-third of the way to securing a 1,991 delegate majority.
“This isn’t over,” Mayer said. “Bernie Sanders showed in 2016 that he’s willing to go right to the end, even if it’s mathematically impossible for him to win.”
As Biden’s surge in media attention and endorsements wanes, he could have a hard time keeping his lead. Keeping energy and an aura of authority is essential. Voters are choosing Biden “because they’re so afraid of Bernie and they really want to beat Trump,” Mayer said.
To keep from having a long, drawn-out primary like 2016, Biden will have to keep Sanders from amassing a big lead in Midwestern states. There are 125 delegates up for grabs in Michigan on March 10 and 251 between Illinois and Ohio on March 17.
Trade will be a major subject in those states: Sanders has long been against free trade agreements that Biden supported.
As he tries to gain support from portions of the electorate more inclined to support Sanders, Biden could benefit from praising them rather than attacking them for vicious online attacks — a subject that came up in several Democratic presidential debates.
“One thing I think he would be smart to do is really be nice to Bernie supporters,” Mayer said. “Talk about their passion, talk about how excited he is by young people who are with Bernie. Because he’s going to need that fervor, and he’s going to need that support. And he desperately needs to be in charge of a united party.”
Depending on whether and how long Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts stays in the race, and what delegates allocated to candidates who dropped out do, there is a possibility that neither Sanders nor Biden wins the 1,991 pledged delegates needed to win the Democratic presidential nomination, creating a contested convention.
In that case, it’s Biden’s task to ensure a plurality, since Sanders has said that he does not think superdelegates should crown a nominee who got fewer votes than another candidate. That could force Sanders into a position of having to support Biden, and a win on the second ballot may actually benefit him.
“It’s the disaster they just may need,” Mayer argued, “because it will be such high profile TV viewing unlike conventions in the last 50 years.
