Rep. Elise Stefanik is mulling a bid for New York governor in 2022 as Republican insiders encourage the upstate congresswoman to challenge scandal-plagued Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo.
Cuomo is under fire by Democrats and Republicans in Albany, the state capital, because his administration willfully hid information surrounding coronavirus deaths in New York nursing homes. The widening controversy has left Cuomo politically vulnerable, and some senior Republicans in Washington, D.C., and New York believe Stefanik would offer the party the best opportunity to flip the governor’s mansion in the deep-blue Empire State. Stefanik is listening while conducting some light reconnaissance, GOP sources confirmed.
“Elise has all the hardware to have an unlimited future,” said Tom Reynolds, a former congressman from Buffalo who served two terms as chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee in the 2000s. “The question is, where does she want to take her career?”
New York is on track to lose a House seat in the decennial redistricting process later this year. How Stefanik’s 21st Congressional District shakes out could make that decision for her. A representative for Stefanik did not respond to a request for comment for this story.
Cuomo was expected to easily win a fourth term next year, hailed as a competent executive who led New York through a deadly pandemic — in contrast to the chaotic approach of former President Donald Trump. Then the state attorney general uncovered his subterfuge relating to nursing homes. To avoid a federal investigation, the Cuomo administration lied about the nursing home deaths attributable to COVID-19, reporting them as significantly lower than they actually were.
The resulting political fallout has prompted the Republican Governors Association and the Republican National Committee to put New York on their radar as a handful of prominent Republican politicians consider a run for governor in 2022 that suddenly appears worthwhile. Potential contenders include Rep. Tom Reed, from western New York; Rep. Lee Zeldin, from Long Island; and Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro. But Stefanik is piquing particular interest.
The 36-year-old congresswoman is a dynamic politician from near Albany who has cultivated a network of relationships across the state while in Washington working to elect more Republican women to Congress. Her name identification is high, both from her work on Capitol Hill and the public fight she picked with Cuomo over his handling of the coronavirus. And Stefanik is a solid fundraiser, having collected $13.4 million for her 2020 reelection campaign — a figure fueled by a list of small-dollar, grassroots contributors that numbers approximately 300,000.
At issue in a state like New York, where the Democratic Party dominates politics, is whether Stefanik’s centrist voting record on legislation in the House can soothe voters who might be concerned about her political alliance with Trump. Stefanik was a high-profile opponent of Trump’s first impeachment by the House in late 2019, endearing her to voters in a “North Country” congressional district that is very supportive of the 45th president.
Her friendly relations with Trump could be a big boost in other regions of the state as well. Trump even improved his numbers in New York City in 2020, over 2016. But it could also be her biggest liability. President Biden defeated his predecessor by 24 percentage points in New York in November, flipping four counties on his way to performing even stronger statewide than Hillary Clinton did four years earlier.
