A committee at the National Hurricane Center in Miami is weighing whether to move the start of the Atlantic hurricane season up to start in the middle of May.
As it stands now, the hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, and the consideration to move up the start date reportedly came out of the NOAA Hurricane Conference in December. The NHC recorded the most active Atlantic hurricane season in recorded history last year, with a stunning 30 named storms.
NHC spokesman Dennis Feltgen told Weather.com on Friday that the committee would be evaluating all aspects of moving the start date up more than two weeks to May 15.
“Considerations for the team would include a determination of the quantitative threshold for adding or removing dates from the official Atlantic hurricane season,” Feltgen said. “Then, an examination would need to take place regarding the need for, and potential ramifications of, potentially moving the beginning of the hurricane season to May 15.”
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Such a move would match the May 15 start date of the eastern Pacific hurricane season. Proponents have cited the trend of earlier named storms over the past few decades as justification for changing the date.
Last year, Tropical Depression One formed off the east coast of Florida on May 16 before developing into Tropical Storm Arthur just hours later. The storm moved north and grazed North Carolina’s Outer Banks, drenching the region. In 2019, Subtropical storm Andrea formed on May 17, while Tropical Storm Alberto formed on May 20 in 2018.
In addition to the talks about moving up the hurricane season, the NHC announced on Friday that it will start issuing routine tropical weather outlooks beginning on May 15.
While rising sea temperatures due to climate change are often cited as a contributor to these earlier storms, the Washington Post reported that the increase could also be attributed in part to better satellites and weather technology that allows meteorologists to identify storms early in the season better.
“Many of the May systems are short-lived, hybrid (subtropical) systems that are now being identified because of better monitoring and policy changes that now name subtropical storms,” Feltgen told the newspaper in an email. “In 2020, NHC issued 36 ‘special’ Tropical Weather Outlooks prior to June 1st.”
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An early prediction for this year’s hurricane season also points to above-average activity, with researchers in December estimating a 60% chance for another active season in 2021.
