CNN analysts believe the Republican stronghold of Texas could turn on President Trump if the Democratic Party picks Joe Biden as its nominee.
While announcing the findings of their latest poll, CNN wrote, “But perhaps the biggest story from our poll is that the formerly deep-red state of Texas looks competitive in the general election if the Democrats nominate Biden.”
CNN’s latest poll found that Biden, 77, and Trump, 73, were in a tight race in the typically red state of Texas. The poll showed 48% of Texans backing Trump in 2020, while Biden had the support of 47% of respondents.
Trump’s support was reflected in his favorability. The poll showed Trump has a 49% approval rating and a 48% disapproval rating in the state. CNN’s poll showed Biden closing the gap between him and the president compared to a Quinnipiac poll from June that showed him trailing the president by 4% with 44% support compared to Trump’s 48% support.
Other 2020 Democrats did not do as well in a hypothetical matchup against Trump. The poll showed Sens. Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, all down 7% against the president.
CNN wrote, “That Biden and Trump are basically tied with each other in our Texas poll (48% for Trump to 47% for Biden) may come as a surprise to some folks. It actually makes a lot of sense looking at our poll and recent political history in the state.”
The network noted that recent elections had shown some promise for Texas Democrats. They pointed to the Senate bid by former Rep. Beto O’Rourke as a positive sign for the Democratic Party even though he lost to Sen. Ted Cruz by more than 200,000 votes or about 2.6% of the vote.
O’Rourke also ran for president in 2020 but dropped out in November after failing to gain traction with voters on a national scale.
Biden has been the front-runner for most of the Democratic primary, despite falling behind Buttigieg in Iowa. His RealClearPolitics nationwide polling average shows the former vice president with 28.5% support, a 10.5% lead over Sanders, his nearest competitor.
UPDATE: In response to CNN’s poll, Manny Garcia, executive director for the Texas Democratic Party, told the Washington Examiner: “Texas is the biggest battleground state. Poll after poll shows the same result: This election is razor-thin. Trump is terrified. That’s why he visited Texas seven times the past year and has spent more on Facebook ads in Texas than any other state in the country. Without Texas, Trump cannot win this election.”
The Republican Party of Texas countered Garcia’s claim. Chairman James Dickey told the Washington Examiner, “CNN continuously showed President Trump losing in the 2016 election — even claiming he was down by nine points just weeks before the election. Texans don’t care about polls, they care about results. Over 800,000 jobs have been created during President Trump’s administration in Texas alone and we’re seeing historically low unemployment. These results speak for themselves and Texans will vote accordingly.”
