The Republican Governors Association is going all in for Wisconsin governor Scott Walker in the home stretch of the 2014 campaign. According to a GOP source familiar with RGA spending, the organization has reserved $4 to $5 million in TV ad time for the final two weeks before the election.
The air cover will come as welcome news to Republicans in Wisconsin who were alarmed by an October 16 Associated Press report that Walker and his allies were being outspent by Democratic challenger Mary Burke and her allies. “The Center for Public Integrity reported Thursday that Walker and his backers spent nearly $6.1 million on ads through Monday, while Burke and her supporters ran nearly $6.6 million,” the AP reported.
Behind the scenes, a number of leading Republicans have expressed concern that the RGA isn’t pulling its weight in Wisconsin. According to the Center for Public Integrity, the AP’s source on campaign ad spending, the RGA has spent $5.4 million on TV ads in Michigan but just $726,000 on TV ads in Wisconsin. Why would the RGA spend so much more for Governor Rick Snyder than Scott Walker?
In separate conversations with THE WEEKLY STANDARD, multiple top Republicans in the state have been wondering the same thing: Could New Jersey governor Chris Christie, the chairman of the RGA, be tanking Walker, a potential rival for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination? As Republican governors who took on public employee unions in blue states, Christie and Walker would be chasing after some of the same donors and voters in the 2016 race (if both men decide to run).
But according to the GOP source on RGA spending, the Center for Public Integrity numbers paint a very inaccurate picture. For example, CPI doesn’t show any expenditures from the RGA in Florida, but the source said that the RGA has spent $17 million to date in the effort to reelect Florida governor Rick Scott. In addition to advertising expenditures, that figure include things like polling, research, and field operations.
Total RGA spending to date in Michigan is $10 million and $6 million in Wisconsin, according to the GOP source, who added that the RGA will spend more in Wisconsin than in Michigan by the time the election is over. That would the RGA’s 2014 spending in Wisconsin at a higher level than Walker’s 2010 campaign ($5 million) and the 2012 Wisconsin recall election ($9 million). If that’s true, then concerns that Christie is sabotaging Walker would appear to be unfounded.
Even with the RGA’s help, it’s unclear if Walker will have the advantage on TV ad spending during the final two weeks of the campaign. Wisconsin Republicans say that the secret “John Doe” investigation into the campaign finances of conservative political organizations–which has been halted by judges, pending appeal–may be keeping some conservative money on the sidelines. The investigation effectively told conservative political groups to “stay the hell out of Wisconsin,” according to one Wisconsin GOP operative. “You can’t be a conservative issue group outside of Wisconsin and believe it’s simple and easy to participate in Wisconsin state politics.”
Walker and Burke are currently running neck-and-neck, with Burke holding a 0.6-point lead, according to the RealClearPolitics average of polls.
