Congressional Republicans anxious about the midterm elections are breathing a little easier, for the moment, after fresh public opinion polls showed an uptick in voter support for their $1.4 trillion tax overhaul.
The New York Times/SurveyMonkey poll pegged support for the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act at 46 percent, with 49 percent disapproving. Thirty-eight percent approved in a Marist survey for NPR and PBS’s NewsHour. In a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, support for the bill climbed 6 points to 30 percent.
All told, these ratings represent an improvement from the barely one quarter of American voters who supported the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in late December when the package cleared Congress on a narrow, party-line vote (all Democrats voted “no”) and was signed by President Trump.
“This issue presents a major opportunity for Republicans to continue building on the progress that has been made and to improve their standing going into the fall,” David Winston, a Republican pollster who advises congressional Republicans, said in a memorandum reviewing public attitudes toward the tax bill that was issued on Friday.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is still underwater with voters, and there’s no guarantee they will embrace it in numbers sufficient to help Republicans overcome threats to their congressional majorities driven by President Trump’s polarizing leadership.
In the same polls that show gains for tax bill support, Trump’s job approval rating is still hovering near an abysmal 40 percent; he is not getting credit for tax reform or the booming economy. And Democrats lead on the generic ballot question of which party voters would prefer control Capitol Hill, although their advantage has shrunk since late last year.
Republican strategists also concede that selling tax reform isn’t easy, especially when Trump’s lack of message discipline is taken into consideration. The government shutdown could complicate that effort, even if voters ultimately blame the impasse on the Democrats.
But a stream of positive economic developments has emerged since the tax law was enacted.
Corporations, among them Apple and Fiat Chrysler, are promising bonuses and wage hikes, and say they plan to hire additional workers and invest in more plants and equipment. The moves have boosted the Republicans’ confidence in their ability to turn around public opinion and withstand the expected midterm headwinds.
Tax reform also serves as a unifying link between Trump and Republicans in Congress. Their relationship has often been a rocky one, with the president lashing out at his presumed Capitol Hill allies. But tax reform is a shared achievement, and Trump and congressional Republicans have a shared interest in selling it to the voters.
“I think something has fundamentally changed with the passage of the tax cuts, and that is that the president and [congressional] Republicans are now all in the same boat, with the same incentives,” GOP strategist Brad Todd said.
In the New York Times poll, the 46 percent approval for the Republican tax bill revealed a 9-point gain from December; the Marist survey for NPR and PBS’s NewsHour showed a 10-point jump. Winston, in his firm’s own polling conducted just before the New Year, saw brightening political indicators for Republicans generally.
From Winston’s memo:
- Since tax reform passed, the brand image of congressional Republicans is still challenging but has improved from 31-64 favorable-unfavorable at the end of November to 35-58. Among Republican voters, it improved from 65-32 to 71-26. In contrast, the image of congressional Democrats slipped slightly from 43-52 favorable-unfavorable in November to 40-54.
- Since the passage of the bill, issue handling has also improved. At the end of November, when the tax reform debate was at its height, issue handling had become much more challenging (minus 1 on the economy, minus 2 on jobs, minus 6 on taxes) but now stands at plus 6 on the economy, plus 3 on jobs, and taxes being tied.
- In this survey, initial reaction to “the tax reform plan recently passed by Congress” received a neutral response (41-42 favor-oppose), which is a significant improvement over previous reaction to “the tax plan proposed by Republicans in Congress” as it stood prior to passage (30-47 favor-oppose in the November survey). After hearing provisions of the plan, reaction improves to 48-36 favor-oppose, reflecting a clear need to communicate benefits and components of the plan.
