A new analysis of 2022 midterm data found that Latino support for Democrats helped tip the scales in a few key races.
In a historic first, Heritage Action found that Latinos voted mostly Republican in the midterm elections. That is a promising sign for the GOP, but Republicans still have a ways to go, as an analysis by the research firm Equis found that Latino support for Democrats helped tip the scales in key races in Arizona, Texas, and Nevada, according to Axios.
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The analysis found that Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) won more Latino support than President Joe Biden did in 2020, helping to defeat his Trump-backed challenger, Blake Masters.
Nevada Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, the only Latina senator, won slightly less Latino support than Biden, but it was enough to give her a victory.
Latinos also shifted Democratic in South Texas; Rep. Mayra Flores (R-TX) had previously won in a traditionally Democratic area. Her loss dampened hopes that Latinos were shifting decidedly Republican.
While Latinos helped tip the scales to the Democrats in some areas, they swung decisively in the opposite direction in other areas. The most drastic shift was in Florida’s Miami-Dade County. There, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) swung Hispanics by a whopping 31 points in his favor compared to his last race in 2018.
“I think the top line is that Latinos live in a perpetual persuasion window,” Tory Gavito, president and CEO of the left-wing Way to Win, told Axios.
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Latinos voted 51% Republican in the midterm elections, according to data from Heritage Action, compared to only 43% that voted Democratic. However, the distribution of those votes was key, showing that Republicans aren’t ensured victory with Latinos just yet.
