Two Jews, Three Opinons

The New America Foundation released a new poll today, conducted by J Street founding VP Jim Gerstein, that found — surprise! — Israelis are suddenly much better inclined toward President Obama than previous polls have shown. Noah Pollak explains how this happened:

I was always skeptical of the original poll. The numbers just seemed too low to be credible, and the poll was conducted right after Netanyahu’s Bar-Ilan speech, when passions were high. But the way to credibly disprove those numbers is to sample a similar group and ask the same questions. Unsurprisingly, that’s not what Gerstein did. The JPost poll was conducted among Jewish Israelis. Gerstein, however, polled everyone, including Arabs, who comprised 16 percent of his sample (an under-sampling, actually – almost 20 percent of Israelis are Arab). More important, he did not ask the same, or even a similar, question. He asked a question that was sure to make Obama look better than the previous poll: not whether the respondent thought that the Obama administration was pro-Israel, but whether the respondent had warm feelings toward Barack Obama personally.

Ben Smith concludes from this that “Obama’s numbers among Israeli Jews are likely even worse than a quite gloomy poll suggests.” Perhaps the most interesting part of the poll was the split between those Israelis who place themselves on the right wing of the Israeli political spectrum (43 percent) and those who place themselves on the left (20 percent). That’s sort of amazing in a country that was founded by socialists and dominated by socialists for the first 50 years of its history. The shift demonstrates how traumatic the collapse of the Oslo process and the outbreak of the Second Intifada were. Everyone convinced themselves there would be peace — the only skeptics were on the right. Now everyone’s on the right. Read Noah’s very thoughtful post here and a thorough write up of the results from Ben Smith here.

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