Public Policy Polling, a Democratic polling firm, declares: “You can put Pennsylvania Senate back in the toss up category. Joe Sestak leads Pat Toomey 46-45 in our newest poll of the race, erasing the 9 point deficit he had in an August PPP survey.”
Before we go any further, here’s Jay Cost’s helpful advice about polls from this morning: “remember to always be an informed consumer of polls! Bookmark the 2008 (a great Democratic year), 2006 (a good Democratic year), and 2004 (a slightly good Republican year) exit poll sites — and before you accept any poll, cross-reference what it predicts the electorate will be with what it was in those past years. This is so important this year because I think polls are increasingly being used to move public opinion rather than to inform us about it.”
In 2004, the partisan breakdown in Pennsylvania was 41% Democrat, 39% Republican, 20% independent.
In 2006, it was 43% Democrat, 38% Republican, 19% independent.
In 2008, it was 44% Democrat, 37% Republican, 18% independent.
And what does PPP predict the partisan makeup of the electorate will be in 2010? 48% Democrat (!), 41% Republican, 11% independent. Color me skeptical that Pennsylvania Democrats will hold a 48% to 41% edge over Republicans in 2010.
The RCP average of polls, which includes the new PPP poll, shows Toomey with a 6.3% lead over Sestak.
Update: PPP’s Tom Jensen tells THE WEEKLY STANDARD:
