President Joe Biden and Chinese General Secretary Xi Jinping took a first step toward agreeing to launch arms control dialogues, according to a senior White House official, but the idea remains in its infancy.
“The two leaders agreed that we would look to begin to carry forward discussions on strategic stability,” White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Tuesday after a virtual meeting between Biden and Xi that ran late into Monday night. “Now, that is not the same as what we have in the Russian context with the formal strategic stability dialogue that is far more mature, has a much deeper history to it. There’s less maturity to that in the U.S.-China relationship, but the two leaders did discuss these issues.”
That initial conversation could open the door to a more substantial process, but China has declined to participate in major arms control talks with Russia and the United States, arguing that Washington and Moscow control far larger arsenals and thus bear the burden of disarmament. Yet, China’s threat, posed by a growing nuclear stockpile and punctuated by the recent test of a hypersonic missile that orbited the globe, has startled U.S. defense officials as both sides seek a military advantage in the Indo-Pacific.
“That [new dialogue] needs to be guided by the leaders and led by senior empowered teams on both sides that cut across security technology and diplomacy,” Sullivan said.
The structure of Cold War arms control has cracked under the strain of Russian ambitions in Eastern Europe, the burgeoning U.S.-China rivalry, and technological developments that have given rise to new weapons not contemplated by historic arms control deals. Those new threats were underscored on Monday, when U.S. officials condemned Russia’s testing of an anti-satellite weapon that destroyed a defunct satellite and created a debris field that threatened the International Space Station.
“The debris actually poses a risk to civilian activity in space, but is also of concern because it demonstrates that Russia is now developing new weapons systems that can shoot down satellites, can destroy important space capabilities for basic infrastructure on Earth, like communications, like navigation, or like early warning of missile launches,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Tuesday.
The major world powers have yet to agree even on the definition of a weapon in space, given the variety of space assets that could damage critical satellites. China, which conducted a similar anti-satellite weapons test in 2007, also has alarmed NATO leaders with the development of missiles that can threaten Europe.
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“These are sensitive and consequential issues that matter profoundly for America’s national security, and how we effectively manage them with China, as how we effectively manage them with Russia, will be determinative of whether we are succeeding in stewarding this policy effectively or not,” Sullivan said. “And it is now incumbent on us to think about the most productive way to carry it forward from here.”
