MANCHESTER, N.H. — If the ambivalence of many voters here is any indication, the Republican nominating process could prove a grueling test of candidates’ endurance rather than a swift coronation of a presidential nominee.
Right now, there is a different front-runner in each of the first three GOP contests, with Texas Rep. Ron Paul leading in Iowa, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney well ahead of the pack in New Hampshire and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with a comfortable lead in South Carolina.
With voting set to start in Iowa on Jan. 3, the current state of the race suggests that a clear front-runner may not emerge from the earliest contests, which typically help separate the serious contenders from the outgunned pretenders.
“This is going to be a long contest,” said an aide with Romney’s campaign in New Hampshire. “The rules pretty much guarantee that. We’ve planned accordingly.”
Under Republican Party guidelines, at least 15 of the states that vote in March will award their convention delegates proportionately based on the number of votes each candidate gets rather than award them all to the overall winner.
As a result, the 2012 race could be as protracted as the Democratic presidential primary four years ago, when then-Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton battled into June.
President Obama, of course, would welcome a lengthy fight for the GOP nomination, hoping his Republican challenger would emerge bloodied and weaker. However, as he learned four years ago, a widening of the electoral map could also could help a candidate strengthen his or her organization and outreach.
Yet, some doubt the conventional wisdom that suggests the Republican primary will be a drawn-out affair.
Republican consultant Brian Donahue predicted the race would not last much longer than the Nevada caucuses in early February. “I don’t believe it will be incredibly long and drawn-out,” he said. “It’s going to come down to money and resources.”
Donahue noted that the price of campaign advertising buys in early-primary states has risen dramatically, and without a strong showing many of the second-tier candidates could bow out as their coffers drain.
Romney, who raised $20 million in the fourth quarter of this year alone, is clearly marshaling his resources for a lengthy national campaign.
Meanwhile, Gingrich, who has surged to the top of many national polls, is struggling just to make the ballot in several states and, following a mass staff exodus earlier this year, has a campaign staff only a fraction of the size of Romney’s or even Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s.
One of the factors that could determine the course of the current campaign is which candidate, if any, emerges from early primaries as a viable alternative to the front-runner, Donahue said.
“If there is a clear second candidate in each of these states, then you might see an inkling from people to step away from their first choice and unite behind [the other] candidate,” he said.
Adding to the election’s uncertainty is the often contrarian spirit of New Hampshire voters.
Four years ago, for example, voters here handed surprise primary victories to Republican Sen. John McCain and Clinton, extending both parties’ nomination fights by helping to resurrect the moderate Republican’s candidacy and making the Democratic contest a dead heat.
