BIRMINGHAM, Alabama — After keeping his campaign afloat with his South Carolina victory, Joe Biden is poised to be first in the Alabama contest if Michael Bloomberg’s overwhelming presence in the state doesn’t pull support away from the former vice president.
There’s a dearth of polling in Alabama, which gives out 52 pledged delegates on Super Tuesday, a day when more than a third of all delegates are awarded when 14 states vote. The eventual nominee will need to win a total of 1,991 pledged delegates.
Alabama is the only state forecast as an outright victory for Biden, according to an analysis by FiveThirtyEight. The forecast gives Biden a 61% chance of winning. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders follows with 21%, and Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York City, comes in third with 17%.
Biden and Bloomberg are making quick trips to Alabama on Sunday, while Sanders has opted to focus on other states.
“Alabama should be a good state for Joe Biden,” Regina Wagner, who teaches political science at the University of Alabama, told the Washington Examiner. “The primary electorate is not particularly liberal, which should be good for him.”
Wagner said it bodes well for Biden that black voters make up a majority of the state’s Democrats. Biden has consistently polled well with African Americans, which was underscored by his win in South Carolina.
“If South Carolina doesn’t support you, that would make it more likely that someone like Bloomberg would get more support” in Alabama, Bill Stewart, a professor emeritus at the University of Alabama, told the Washington Examiner.
Biden also has some of the most coveted endorsements among Alabama Democrats. He secured the support of Sen. Doug Jones and Rep. Terri Sewell, an influential member of the Black Congressional Caucus with ties to Obamaworld, as well as that of Birmingham Mayor Randall Woodfin, despite his connections to Sanders.
But Bloomberg, a former Republican, has the backing of the Alabama Democratic Conference, the state’s largest black caucus. He’s also vastly outspending other Democrats in the state, pouring more than $8 million into television and radio ads in the past two months.
“Ad spending in this state is almost exclusively Mike Bloomberg,” Wagner said, adding that it may not have the intended effect given Bloomberg’s debate performances.
Meanwhile, Biden’s campaign announced last week that it was launching a “six-figure” Super Tuesday ad campaign in seven states, which includes Alabama. Stewart said Thursday he had yet to see any ads from Biden.
Beyond ads, Bloomberg has 30 campaign staff across four field offices in the state, a huge investment in a red state not typically prioritized by Democratic candidates.
The billionaire faces challenges in courting black voters, particularly as he’s fumbled questions about his past support of a controversial stop-and-frisk policy.
