Civilian casualties spiked to a two-year high in Afghanistan last month, driven by attacks from “anti-government elements,” just as U.S. and Taliban officials met to hammer out a peace agreement.
More than 1,500 civilians were killed or injured in the country in July, according to preliminary numbers from the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan. That’s the highest number of any month this year and the highest in a single month since May 2017.
“As peace efforts have intensified in recent weeks so too has the conflict on the ground,” Tadamichi Yamamoto, the secretary general’s special representative for Afghanistan, said in a statement. “I call on all parties not to ramp up military operations thinking that doing so will give them a stronger position in talks about peace.”
The number of civilian casualties in the first half of 2019 had been down 27% from the same period in 2018, at 3,812.
The U.N. observed a “documented increase” in the number of “disproportionate and indiscriminate Taliban attacks in urban areas” against Afghan security forces throughout July, which led to many civilian deaths. The month of violence started early on July 1, when a Taliban attack on an Afghan Army logistics center in Kabul left seven civilians dead and 144 injured. Six days later, an attack on a facility owned by the National Directorate of Security, the Afghan government’s main intelligence agency, resulted in 174 civilian casualties, more than 80 of whom were children. The Taliban attacked a police facility in Kandahar on July 18, killing another seven civilians and injuring 72.
The U.N. mission also noted 37 civilians were killed in two attacks featuring pressure-plate improvised explosive devices, which it described as “inherently indiscriminate.”
Afghan government forces were responsible for some of the civilian casualties. For example, an overnight raid by NDS special forces on July 8 and 9 led to the deaths of three civilians. An airstrike conducted by “pro-government forces” on July 19 killed seven, including three children.
U.S. and Afghan officials were in their seventh round of peace talks as some of the most deadly attacks occurred.
“The Taliban are inflicting higher civilian casualties to terrorize the Afghan people into submission,” Husain Haqqani, a former Pakistani ambassador to the United States, told the Washington Examiner. “They realize the U.S. is eager to withdraw its forces from Afghanistan and are waiting for an American withdrawal before trying to recapture power in Afghanistan.”
Haqqani compared the Taliban’s strategy to that of the Viet Cong in South Vietnam. While the Viet Cong consistently lost thousands of soldiers to the militarily superior United States, campaigns such as the Tet Offensive were successful in sowing doubt that America could win a military victory. Ultimately, the Viet Cong would install a Communist government across the entire country that still exists today.
“They want to demoralize the Afghan people into giving up on their government,” Haqqani said of the Taliban.
“The U.S. strategy of direct talks with the Taliban has emboldened them into thinking that they can bring down the Afghan government and restore their Islamic Emirate once the Americans leave.”
The Taliban has thus far refused to engage in direct talks with the Afghan government, which it considers an illegitimate puppet of the United States.
Since 2015, a majority of Afghans have reported they believe their country is headed in the wrong direction, though 61% report satisfaction with democracy in the country.
The Afghan government has struggled to maintain sovereignty over several parts of the country. The government controls 140 districts, the Taliban controls 66, and 191 are considered contested, according to the Long War Journal.
U.S. and Taliban negotiators are engaged in their eighth round of talks.
“The Taliban are signaling they would like to conclude an agreement. We are ready for a good agreement,” Zalmay Khalilzad, U.S. special representative for Afghanistan, said on Twitter Friday.
President Trump wants a military drawdown in Afghanistan ahead of the 2020 election, which could see the number of U.S. troops in the country drop from 14,000 to 8,000 or 9,000 by this fall.
