Northern Virginia has been a growing power in the Commonwealth for decades and that trend is officially set to continue. Last Thursday, February 3rd saw the release of the official population estimates which will be used in the upcoming redistricting process. The state’s population grew by 922,000 people to a total of just over 8 million, of which 2.4 million live in the three largest counties of Northern Virginia. Overall, the Northern Virginia region was responsible for half of the population growth in the state.The Census Bureau released the official national population counts in December.
Those numbers are used for the apportionment of representatives among the states. Beginning with Thursday’s figures and continuing for the next several months the numbers used by states for drawing up their internal district lines will be released.Over the last decade the population in Northern Virginia grew nearly twice as fast as the population of the rest of the state. Most of that growth was due to increases in the Hispanic and Asian populations and was centered in Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William counties.
Those three counties accounted for almost 40% of the growth in the state.Loudoun County added 142,000 residents, accounting for about 15% of the state’s growth. This was an astounding increase of 84% in the county’s population in just the past ten years. The county’s current population is 312,311 residents with most of the growth concentrated in the new developments in the county’s eastern suburbs and focused on the Dulles Technology Corridor.
Fairfax County saw an increase of nearly 112,000 people and tops 1 million residents, up from 970,000 in 2000. Alexandria grew by 9 percent to nearly 140,000 residents, and Arlington added about 20,000 people for a total of 208,000 residents. Prince William County is now a majority-minority county as the share of non-Hispanic whites dropped from 65% in 2000 to under 50% now. Over the past decade the Hispanic and Asian populations tripled and the number of Blacks grew by 60%. The county now has 402,000 residents, almost a third of whom are under age 18.
The increased population will result in more power in Virginia’s General Assembly and a greater focus on issues of particular concern for the region, such as transportation. The growth in population itself will also result in increased resources for services such as roads.
The Virginia constitution requires that districts provide representation proportional to population. A Senate seat will represent approximately 200,000 people, and a Delegate would represent about 88,900. The actual number is allowed to vary by about 2% in either direction.
This year, for the first time, Governor Bob McDonnell has authorized an 11-member independent bipartisan commission to form an initial redistricting plan and advise the General Assembly. He also outlined plans to increase citizen participation in the process, including a website to accept comments. The final vote, however, will reside with the Assembly which meets in April to decide on new boundaries.
Even as the population in the areas traditionally thought of as “Northern Virginia” have risen the geographic area which considers itself part of the region has grown. The two trends combine to increase the power of the regional caucus in Virginia politics.
While in the past Northern Virginia meant the inner counties of Arlington and Fairfax and the local cities of Alexandria, Fairfax, and Falls Church, these boundaries have been pushed ever outward as real estate prices increased and encouraged the suburbs to grow over the past few decades. Some definitions of the region now include more distant counties such as Culpeper, Stafford, and Spotsylvania.
Virginia was part of the first group of states to have data released by the Census bureau. The states in that group, which also included Louisiana, Mississippi and New Jersey, all have state elections this year. Data for Maryland will be released later this week as part of a group which also includes Arkansas, Indiana, Iowa, and Vermont.
