Republicans continue to look like the “brand” on the run. Rasmussen posts this piece documenting further decline since January in the number of self-identified Republicans and continued growth among Democrats. Their May survey finds 31.6 percent identifying as Republicans, 41.4 percent as Democrats and 26.6 percent as “other.” Assuming most voters make their choice for the presidency based on partisan affiliation, these numbers give Barack Obama a big head start toward the White House. Rasmussen writes:
I don’t want to downplay the GOP’s current image problems when it comes to voter perceptions. But one historical caveat is in order when considering the link between party affiliation and electoral success. The post-9/11 period in American history witnessed a period of identification parity unprecedented in modern times. Consider how the party numbers broke down over the past 40 years. Here’s a quick snapshot of Republican vs. Democratic party identification from 1968 to 2004, using the University of Michigan’s American National Election Study series, after the jump.
| Republican | Democrat | Difference (R-D) | |
| 1968 | 25% | 45% | -20% |
| 1972 | 23% | 41% | -18% |
| 1976 | 23% | 40% | -17% |
| 1980 | 23% | 41% | -18% |
| 1984 | 27% | 37% | -10% |
| 1988 | 28% | 35% | -7% |
| 1992 | 25% | 36% | -11% |
| 1996 | 27% | 37% | -10% |
| 2000 | 24% | 34% | -10% |
| 2004 | 28% | 33% | -5% |
And while Republicans had a party ID deficit in 10 out of 10 years, they won seven of those presidential elections. Just a little perspective on an otherwise negative trend for the GOP.
