IN THIS SPRING’S PENNSYLVANIA SENATE PRIMARY conventional wisdom has incumbent Arlen Specter coasting to victory over challenger Rep. Pat Toomey. Specter starts out with all the advantages. He has the backing of the Republican establishment–the White House, Pennsylvania’s junior senator, Rick Santorum, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, and at least four Pennsylvania GOP House members have pledged their support. As a four term senator, Specter also has high name recognition and sizeable campaign coffers.
But Specter has shown weakness before in Pennsylvania’s closed primary. In 1992, Steve Friend, an underfunded, obscure state representative secured 35 percent of the vote. In 1998, Specter’s two unknown challengers combined for 33 percent of the vote.
