Sen. Barack Obama returns to Virginia today for the second time in a week, making appearances in Richmond and Leesburg that will highlight the Old Dominion’s potential role as a decisive battle in the presidential election.
Obama is hoping to bring Virginia into the Democratic column for the first time since 1964 by campaigning hard here in the crucial last days before the Nov. 4 election.
And with a 52 percent to 42 percent lead in the latest national survey from the widely respected Wall Street Journal and NBC News poll, Obama is in a position to press his advantage.
Based on current state polls, an Obama win in Virginia would make an Electoral College victory for McCain almost impossible, since none of the states won by John Kerry in 2004’s close election seem to be up for grabs.
“In the last leg of the campaign, every second counts and this sends a very clear signal to Virginia that Obama thinks this is a very key state,” said Virginia Tech political science professor Craig Brians. “He’s paying a lot of attention to it.”
That’s because the once-reliably Republican commonwealth has turned a deep shade of purple this year, thanks to demographic shifts in areas like Leesburg and the Richmond suburbs and an unpopular incumbent president.
But Virginia voted for President Bush by 8 percentage points over Democrats Al Gore and John Kerry in 2000 and 2004 respectively, so a win by Obama over Republican John McCain would require a major upset, despite record registration of young voters and poll numbers that have shown him with as much as a 10-point lead here.
“Obama has done a great job of bringing new voters into the system, but I don’t think he’s brought in enough to win just by mobilizing those voters, said University of Richmond political scientist Daniel Palazzolo.
Palazzolo and other political experts believe, however, that the race will be very close, which is why both candidates have been spending more time here than any presidential contender in decades.
Obama visited the state for the seventh time on Friday when he campaigned in Roanoke and McCain made his third stop in Virginia Saturday in Prince William County. Both areas are split in support for the candidates.
Polls show Obama ahead, with RealClearPolitics averaging an eight-point advantage for the Illinois senator.
But Republican officials in Virginia and some political experts say they believe the race is actually much tighter.
“If Senator Obama was ahead as much as he wants us to believe, he wouldn’t be making this many visits to Virginia, said state Del. John Cosgrove, a Republican who represents Chesapeake. “It is certainly not a given that Virginia is going to go for Barack Obama.”
Democrats acknowledged a tight race.
“From the polls I’ve seen, it’s going to be a close race and that is why we are fighting a strong ground game here,” said Jared Leopold, a spokesman for the state Democratic Party. “It is the biggest field operation we have ever run in the state of Virginia.”
McCain’s Virginia co-chairman, Jerry Kilgore said, “Every poll I’ve seen shows a close race all over,” he said. “We expect a close election.”
