Democrats got a boost in their quest for the House majority Tuesday night when Republican Corey Stewart won the primary to take on Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine in November.
Nonpartisan election forecasters agreed Democrats’ chances of flipping not one, but possibly three, seats in Virginia improved significantly Tuesday night.
“VA Republicans now have a big problem,” tweeted Larry Sabato of the nonpartisan handicapper Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
If Kaine wins as expected, Sabato explained, the “undertow” for Republicans could net Democrats two or three House seats. “That’s a real one-state contribution to the +23 seats (net) Dems need nationally,” Sabato said.
Republican incumbent Barbara Comstock in Virginia’s 10th Congressional District is the top target for Democrats. Comstock’s represents one of two dozen GOP-held districts that Hillary Clinton won in 2016, making her one of the most vulnerable House Republicans.
Stewart’s win also increased Democrats’ odds of flipping two more Republican-held seats in the state. Democrats already had their eye on GOP Rep. Scott Taylor in the 2nd District and Republican Rep. Dave Brat in the 7th District, hopeful that a wave could topple the incumbents, but such victories were viewed as long shots.
Rep. Denny Heck, D-Wash., who runs recruitment for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said after Tuesday’s primary the “top three” targets in Virginia are Comstock, Taylor, and Brat.
“He’s a massive lift for Democratic prospects across the commonwealth,” Rep. Gerry Connolly, D-Va., said of Stewart. “He certainly doesn’t help unify the [Republican] Party.”
Stewart is campaigning on a platform that defends Confederate monuments. He also refused to condemn white nationalists after a violent rally in Charlottesville, Va., last year. A number of Republicans are already distancing themselves, and Stewart is expected to get no help from the official Senate Republican campaign arm. He did receive a warm embrace from President Trump, though.
Last year, voters in the commonwealth turned out to reject a Republican candidate for governor who molded himself into a mini-Trump on immigration policy, and Democrats are hoping for a repeat. Having Stewart at the top of the Republican ticket statewide could drive up Democratic turnout, impacting their candidates positively down ballot.
“National Democrats got the candidates they wanted in Virginia, while national Republicans were hoping that Corey Stewart would not be their Senate nominee,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Crystal Ball.
Elaborating on Sabato’s assessment of Tuesday’s primary, Kondik said Stewart’s “base-driven, scorched-earth campaign” will likely hurt Republicans in the 2nd, 7th, and 10th districts, which all contain parts of the state’s “three big urban areas.”
Hours after Stewart’s victory, former Virginia Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, a Republican, criticized his party for choosing Stewart.
“I am extremely disappointed that a candidate like Corey Stewart could win the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate,” said Bolling, one of the last Republicans to win statewide. “This is clearly not the Republican Party I once knew, loved, and proudly served. Every time I think things can’t get worse they do, and there is no end in sight.”
Stewart’s candidacy puts Republicans like Comstock in a bind. Candidates from the same party running in the same state tend to coordinate their campaigns where possible, boosting their colleagues, but a polarizing figure like Stewart makes that problematic for incumbents like Comstock. If she ties herself to Stewart, she’ll be asked about him anytime he issues a controversial statement.
And if Comstock and her fellow Virginia Republicans Brat and Taylor decide to distance themselves from Stewart, they could incur the wrath of Trump.
“Don’t underestimate Corey, a major chance of winning!” Trump tweeted Wednesday morning, putting him at odds with Senate Republicans.
Kaine wasted no time in defining the race.
“It’s a race not just about two people, but it’s like: Who does Virginia see when we look ourselves in the mirror,” Kaine told Politico.
As centrist Republicans or those who stand up to Trump — from Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake to Republican South Carolina Rep. Mark Sanford — are pushed out or remain quiet, Democrats are telling voters they’ll provide the check their current Republican representatives can’t. Though Senate GOP leaders say they won’t be spending on Stewart in Virginia, they can’t control where Trump decides to campaign.
“It really isn’t R vs D anymore,” said Sabato. “It’s T vs D. T for Trump.”
