Wisconsin Republicans split on ‘Trump effect’

That’s the conclusion from interviews with scores of Wisconsin voters and a Marquette University Law School poll earlier this week. Trump so far seems to be having a limited impact on one of the most vulnerable GOP incumbents in the country, Sen. Ron Johnson. Johnson is seeking re-election against former Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold.

Johnson is running ahead of Trump. Marquette found Johnson trailing Feingold by 6 while Trump is 10 points behind Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton.

“The Johnson campaign should be happy that they’re outperforming the presidential candidate,” poll director Charles Franklin said as he unveiled the poll results. “On the other hand, outperforming someone who is doing as poorly as Trump is doing right now is a real disadvantage to the campaign.”

That suggests Trump could become a drag if his poll numbers continue to decline, leaving even GOP candidates outperforming him with bigger deficits to make up.

New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte now trails her Democratic challenger by 10 points in a recent poll as Clinton jumped to a 17-point lead over Trump in the Granite State. Sen. Pat Toomey’s deficit is half that of Johnson’s in Pennsylvania where Clinton has an 11-point advantage.

In states where Trump is more competitive, Johnson’s colleagues are faring much better. Ohio’s Rob Portman is up 9 points while Clinton’s lead is four points. And in Florida, Sen. Marco Rubio is up a few points as Trump only trails by 1.

Among Badger State voters interviewed by the Washington Examiner, they split pretty evenly on whether Johnson — or a candidate further down ballot — should embrace their party’s standard-bearer.

“Anything affiliated with Trump, I would go the other way,” said Christie of Janesville, who asked not to use her last name. She “absolutely” would be less inclined to vote for Johnson if he stumped with Trump.

However, John Armstrong, also of Janesville, likes Trump and thinks that Johnson would lose support if he were thought to be running away from the former reality TV star.

“I think it would probably hurt in the long run,” Armstrong said. “I would like to see the party come together a little bit more. I think it’s dangerous if they don’t.”

Voters got a glimpse last week of how other Wisconsin Republicans are keeping their distance.

Johnson, Gov. Scott Walker and House Speaker Paul Ryan all skipped Trump’s August 5 rally in Green Bay.

They were all mowing their lawns, one state Republican insider joked.

But another warned against reading too much into it. The rally was last minute and Johnson and Ryan already had plans to appear together in Kenosha.

Ryan bested primary opponent Paul Nehlen in a landslide Tuesday but Trump stirred the pot last week by issuing a pro-Nehlen tweet and refusing to endorse Ryan from the outset. Ultimately, Trump endorsed Ryan.

For his part, Ryan is doing his best to show party unity.

“The Trump-Pence ticket is going to be one that will put good judges on the Supreme Court and we will find far better receptivity of our agenda” than Clinton’s, Ryan said during his victory press conference when asked about the latest Trump controversy.

Ryan also denied that his drubbing of Nehlen, whose supporters were adamant Trump fans, is a bad omen for the New York businessman.

“I don’t think it means he’s doomed in November … I wouldn’t ascribe anything else to it,” Ryan said.

Many voters said they don’t know for whom they will check the box on Election Day because they don’t like either presidential candidate.

When asked what she thought of Trump, Kim from Delavan, who didn’t want her last name used, said: “OK that guy needs help, but Hillary Clinton I can’t stand, so it’s a crap shoot.”

Lisa of Janesville, who also asked to go by only her first name, was similarly torn.

“I think what the people voting for Trump is telling Washington is that they don’t want maybe established politicians and they want to be heard,” she said. “But with the candidates so far with the presidential, I don’t know who I’m going to vote for.”

But both women said they would not let candidates’ views of Trump influence their votes in down-ballot races.

“It doesn’t go for or against a candidate,” Lisa said. “I like the candidate and I will be doing the research on the candidate and that will determine who I pick.”

The state GOP insider said that Johnson has to walk a fine line between embracing Trump and distancing himself from the “The Donald,” noting Ted Cruz beat Trump in the Wisconsin presidential primary.

“So in Wisconsin, you have to straddle that,” he said, advising Johnson to run his campaign independently of Trump’s, advice the senator’s camp has taken to heart.

“Not much has changed, but what’s clear is Ron Johnson is an outsider running his own race,” Johnson’s campaign spokesman Brian Reisinger said.

The GOP insider said the most fervent “Never Trump” advocates are concentrated in three adjoining counties — Ozaukee, Waukesha and Washington — and that the rest of the state’s Republicans support him.

Another Republican operative said the schism won’t hurt the GOP and that Trump can actually help down-ballot candidates in some congressional districts.

The three-county “anti-Trump zone” is overwhelmingly Republican, the operative said. Whether they vote for Trump or skip the presidential race, their voters will pull the lever for Johnson and others.

And in swing districts where Trump is popular, the Wausau-based 7th and La Crosse-based 3rd, for example, he could pull along Republican candidates for the statehouse who are in tight races, the operative said.

Marquette’s Franklin said a lot hinges on voter turnout.

“The other thing is if a party is not highly motivated for its presidential candidate, if voters don’t turn out for that candidate, they also don’t turn out for people down the ballot,” he said.

Brian Fitzgerald, a family friend of Ryan’s and high school classmate of Feingold’s said the Trump factor “cuts both ways” but the bottom line all candidates need to bear in mind is: “You’re dealing with some angry voters.”