This Insider Advantage survey from Pennsylvania shows Clinton’s lead now cut to just two points (45%-43%)–continuing the Obama surge several of us have discussed in the last couple of days. While they don’t report details on the sampling procedure, I assume those numbers are within the margin of error and we can now call this pivotal state a “dead heat.” A PPP poll released yesterday shows similar results. Insider Advantage reports some crosstabs, and differences within subgroups are pretty dramatic–in the direction we’ve seen before, only bigger. For example, Obama wins the under-30 crowd, 70.0%-26.5%, while Clinton sails among seniors, 54.2%-32.8%. Clinton also wins women by 11 points, but loses among men by nine points. One other interesting tidbit from the Insider Advantage poll: Hillary Clinton draws nearly a third of the African-American vote–somewhat higher than I would have expected. The PPP poll referenced above shows Obama getting about 75% among blacks, a number more in line with recent primaries.
