The Biden administration said it had evidence of a Russian plot to fabricate a pretext for invading Ukraine by staging a bloody attack against Russian territory or Russian-speakers and pinning it on Ukrainian forces.
As part of the alleged propaganda effort, Russia would showcase graphic scenes of a staged false explosion with corpses, actors depicting mourners, and images of destroyed locations and military equipment, according to a senior administration official.
THREATS TO PUTIN’S INNER CIRCLE MAY DO LITTLE TO SHIFT UKRAINE PLANS
The plot would seek to implicate Ukraine, allied forces, or NATO in the attack by using what looks like Western military equipment, as well as Turkish anti-tank Bayraktar drones.
The official said U.S. intelligence shows Moscow has already recruited participants for the attack, with Russian security services closely involved.
By publicizing it, Washington hopes to dissuade Russia from moving forward.
The official said this was one of several possible options under consideration by Moscow as it attempts to portray Ukraine as a threat.
The administration pointed to recent action by the Russian Parliament to recognize separatist states in eastern Ukraine under the pretext that Kyiv is denying local residents their basic rights.
An intervention would be presented as a defense of ethnic Russians in the territory, where Russian-backed separatists have been fighting the Ukrainian government since 2014.
U.S. officials have repeatedly warned of Russian propaganda that could be used as a pretext for an invasion against Ukraine.
Moscow has denied any intention to attack Ukraine but has built up approximately 100,000 troops on the country’s borders, prompting concerns that Russian President Vladimir Putin could send forces in at any moment.
On Monday, United Nations Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield warned in remarks at the United Nations Security Council that Putin had advanced 5,000 soldiers into Belarus, which borders Ukraine.
She said the number of troops on the Belarus-Ukraine border could swell to more than 30,000 by early this month, according to U.S. intelligence findings.
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Russia has demanded security concessions from NATO, including a promise that the alliance will not add Ukraine as a member, which Washington and European allies have rejected.
