The Giuliani campaign is playing a beautiful game of three card monte with the national media regarding the expectations game in Iowa and New Hampshire – not that I’ve ventured out of the Cathedral to actually witness such a sinful game of tricks and deceit. … I hear the Rudy expectations grift goes like this: “Rudy is ahead in national polls, which means he’ll win all the big delegate heavy states on February 5th, like California and New Jersey where he is also ahead in local polls. The early states like New Hampshire and Iowa just are not that important, but they are sort of important, so Rudy is sort of campaigning there.” This rivals Fred Thompson’s stand on abortion for its clever sophism. I’d put my team of Jesuits to work on decoding it if they weren’t still busy wolfing down entire bottles of Tylenol while trying to unravel Fred’s “I’m pro-life at the state level so long as it doesn’t criminalize abortion” position. I think the Rudy expectation spin boils down to an assertion that Rudy can lose the early states and will win so, in fact, he has no measurable expectations to win or lose. Tricky, huh? But clever. Mostly for the shameless assumption, so far correct, that the national press is bone-headed enough to fall for this whopper. Team Rudy is no collection of fools; there is a crafty plan lurking behind this expectations house of mirrors. Step One: Down-play Iowa and New Hampshire with lots of mumbo jumbo about the big states and the vast canvas of national politics. Step Two: Pump mail, radio and other quiet activity into Iowa and New Hampshire by the freight car load. Quietly match Romney field staff size in Iowa, but hold TV for late since it is only thing press really notices. Step Three: Act shocked and amazed when Rudy soars over all expectations to a stunning and amazing third place finish in Iowa with 17 percent of the vote (or even get lucky and hit second place), while Mitt Romney “loses” Iowa by only winning with 38 percent to Mike Huckabee’s stunning 32 percent. Then ride that “upset” bounce (the bounce you officially don’t believe in) into New Hampshire on breathless press coverage and win another huge and amazing upset, beating a wounded Romney and McCain, among the most pro-choice and moderate-friendly GOP primary states. Run the table thereafter to win the nomination, clinching it on February 5. It is a very smart plan and easily the best expectations control strategy of any of the big campaigns. You gotta hand it to them. Best of all, it is deliciously and surreptitiously ironic: The campaign that loudly denies the bounce effect exists is actually relying on it more than the others. Because if Romney beats Rudy in both Iowa and New Hampshire, lights out for the New Yorker. Same if McCain upsets all in New Hampshire and wins South Carolina, or if Thompson comes back to life to win third in Iowa and upset in New Hampshire much like the Rudy scenario above. So here’s a note of mischief to the other campaigns: The Giuliani campaign says they don’t really care about Iowa and New Hampshire. Take Rudy at his word. Put up 7 or 8 waves of negative mail and radio in Iowa and New Hampshrie and start driving his negatives up to the moon. We’ll see who cares then. …
