Democrats could take a narrow majority in the Senate or spend two more years in the political wilderness, depending on the outcome of a pair of Jan. 5 Georgia contests.
The Peach State runoffs will come two months after the still-undecided White House race between President Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden, and most down-ballot contests in the country.
Though Senate contests in Alaska and North Carolina aren’t yet decided, Republicans have an edge in the counts so far. That means in Georgia, Democrats would need to win both runoffs to get the Senate tally to 50-50 — if Biden wins the presidency and California Sen. Kamala Harris, his running mate, casts tie-breaking votes as vice president.
The Senate special election between Republican-appointed incumbent Sen. Kelly Loeffler and Democratic Rev. Raphael Warnock was expected. On Tuesday, the pair emerged as the first two finishers out of 21 candidates vying for the final two years of former Sen. Johnny Isakson’s term.
Yet, it’s the regularly scheduled Senate election that’s provided Democratic filmmaker Jon Ossoff with a likely unexpected second shot for the seat held by Sen. David Perdue. The former business executive and staunch Capitol Hill ally of Trump failed to earn 50% of the vote, plus one following Tuesday.
On Friday morning, Perdue had 49.8% of the vote compared to 47.8% for Ossoff, with a Libertarian candidate nabbing the rest. That’s hardly final, though, as only 98% of ballots have been counted. And the final tally could be affected by the presidential race count between Trump and Biden. The count early Friday turned in Biden’s direction, but potential legal challenges by Republicans and possible recounts loom.
With Senate control likely in the balance, gobs of outside money are likely to pour in. The 2020 cycle saw losing Senate candidates Amy McGrath in Kentucky and Jaime Harrison in South Carolina take in nearly $200 million in contests that weren’t particularly close. With a Senate majority on the line, both sides will shower candidates with campaign cash, which they’ll need to advertise in the pricey Atlanta media market.
Ossoff and Warnock are still longshots in the traditionally conservative states.
University of Georgia political science professor Charles Bullock said Republicans have won the state’s handful of general election runoffs because their voters have turned out at higher rates. But he said having two runoffs on the ballot may help bring out Democrats for a second time, particularly since Warnock could be Georgia’s first black senator.
“Democrats desperately need for African Americans to come back to the polls,” he told the Washington Examiner, citing the 1992 and 2008 Senate runoffs in which there was a “dramatic” drop in black participation.
Bullock pointed to Georgia exit polls published this week in which “upper 80s, 90%” of black voters cast their ballots for Biden.
For Republicans, they may not have Trump and the White House to enthuse their base, yet an incentive to vote could be bolstering a GOP-controlled Senate majority to hold a hypothetical Biden administration to account.
“The party that loses the White House is always looking to claw something back. Looking for something which maybe indicates a little buyer’s remorse,” Bullock said.
Adding two Senate seats to their ledger would be an achievement for Republicans “to brag about,” according to Bullock, offering them fodder “to inspire their troops.”
To the professor, one of the most important takeaways from the November round of elections was the significance of ground games, especially during a pandemic.
“Republicans did a better job of that, of identifying and mobilizing their voters,” he said.
Loeffler, who had to fight over Georgia Republican support against GOP Rep. Doug Collins, has already pivoted to the runoff, calling Warnock as “far-left” and as a “socialist.” But the Loeffler-Collins contest offered Warnock extra time to introduce himself to the state with a positive message. And it’s a strategy he’s continued after Tuesday, rolling out a new ad preparing voters for a lot of negative ads.
“That’s what he’s going to be in store for, the criticisms, finding former statements, things that he may have said to his congregation, and using those words against him,” Bullock said.
While the Perdue-Ossoff race wasn’t anticipated to end in a runoff, Perdue received negative attention for purposely mispronouncing Harris’s name at a Trump rally, and Ossoff notched a viral debate moment at his expense. So far, though, he’s kept pace with Trump’s Georgia vote.
Georgians are accustomed to high-profile post-season races, including Ossoff’s 2017 special election for then-Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price’s old House seat. And they’re bracing once again for a national money deluge that will be used to awash the state with ads.
“Entities which fund elections, they’ve got no place else to go,” Bullock said. “If there’s only one casino to go to, that’s where you go to gamble.”
The professor added there were only rumblings of reforming state laws to implement instant runoff or ranked-choice voting.
Democrats required a net gain of three or four seats for a Senate majority next Congress, depending on whether Biden becomes president or not.
On Tuesday, Democrats lost their Alabama Senate seat but picked up Arizona and Colorado. Although Republican Sens. Dan Sullivan of Alaska and Thom Tillis of North Carolina’s races have yet to be called, they’re heavily favored to remain in the GOP column. That leaves the Senate at a 48-50 breakdown, with a Republican advantage.
Yet, the fact Democrats are relying on the two runoffs is a let-down to what was supposed to be a promising Senate election cycle.
Democrats had a favorable Senate map; Republicans were forced to defend 23 seats. And seven of those seats were considered “toss ups” by election forecasters. They also had significant edges in fundraising and polling.
