2010 has been one of those years that I suspect, when we look back on it, will make even less sense than it made at the time. Obama and congressional Democrats pushed through some remarkable progressive successes – healthcare reform, financial reform, and the repeal of Don’t Ask Don’t Tell among the main ones – and then almost immediately lost the House to Republicans, and very nearly the Senate as well. Obama turned his back on his own party and signed a massive tax deal with GOP leadership. And the Tea Party became even more ingrained in the American conscience despite poor showings at the polls.
Indeed Tea Party candidate, Joe Miller, lost in historical fashion to Republican Lisa Murkowski who won as a write-in candidate. Meanwhile, Obama expanded the security-state powers of the previous administration by implementing invasive pat-downs and naked body-scanners in major airports, and granting the TSA new powers. Christine O’Donnell, another Tea Party favorite, went down to devestating defeat against her Democratic opponent. But other conservative darlings faired much better. In Florida, rising Republican star Marco Rubio defeated Florida governor and former Republican Charlie Crist for that state’s senate seat. Chris Christie and Mitch Daniels have made waves in their respective states, New Jersey and Indiana, as no-nonsense fiscal conservatives intent on balancing budgets badly out of whack after the recession.
Even Joe Lieberman, the left’s most hated non-Republican senator, redeemed himself by leading the charge against DADT, while his friend the once-maverick John McCain has remade himself entirely as perhaps the least-mavericky senator in the GOP.
So can 2011 be any crazier and any less predictable than 2010?
I think so. In fact, if 2010 taught me anything it’s that you just can’t predict this stuff, and it’s usually stranger than you’d expect. Political analysts might have a great deal to say about understanding events in retrospect, piecing together narratives and assembling clues – but when it comes to making predictions, they’re all a bunch of hacks. Who would have expected the Tea Party to become such an influential force in American politics? In 2008, as Obama and the hope-and-change crew swept to power, analysts – myself included – predicted the GOP would face many long winters in the wilderness before returning to power. Now, the GOP has retaken the House and in two short years could easily retake the Senate and the Oval Office. It’s impossible to say for sure – though by some accounts, the GOP could be in a good position to control the legislature for many years to come. Whether they can field a candidate who can topple Obama is another question entirely.
My only prediction is this: 2011 will be even crazier and less predictable than 2010 was. With the Republicans in control of the House, the whole game has changed. What will Obama do? Move to the center? Take a hard left? There are political risks and benefits to both moves. I bet he pulls a Clinton and goes to the center, but Obama is a progressive of a different stripe than Clinton so it’s hard to say.
Will Sarah Palin announce a bid for the presidency? Will anyone take Obama on from the left? I think these are both likely. 2011 will see the start of the very long race for the 2012 presidential elections, and at this point anything is possible.
