Pete Buttigieg’s abrupt suspension of his presidential campaign is poised to reshape the Democratic presidential field.
The end of his campaign comes just two days before 14 states and two territories vote in Super Tuesday contests on March 3, the results of which will assign about a third of nominating delegates to the Democratic National Convention.
Here are five ways the former South Bend, Indiana, mayor’s exit could affect rival 2020 Democratic candidates’ strengths and strategies.
Joe Biden poised to pick up Buttigieg support
The former vice president, who at 77 is now the youngest male candidate in the Democratic presidential field, could be the biggest beneficiary from Buttigieg’s suspension.
Socialist Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, 78, is a strong force in the Democratic presidential primary, and more centrist candidates such as Buttigieg, Biden, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, and former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg have split the anti-Sanders vote, allowing Sanders to take the lead in the New Hampshire primary and Nevada caucuses.
Biden’s decisive win in South Carolina on Saturday has given life to his campaign, which was teetering on the edge after disappointing fourth- and fifth-place finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire. With Buttigieg, the winner of the Iowa caucuses, out of the race, that gives Biden an opportunity to pick up support from former Buttigieg supporters.
Bloomberg, 78, a billionaire with an effectively unlimited source of cash in the race, is another possible beneficiary from Buttigieg dropping out — something Bloomberg’s campaign called for earlier this month.
Tougher road for Bernie Sanders
Part of Buttigieg’s dropout calculus, reportedly, was that he did not want to contribute to Sanders amassing a delegate lead on Super Tuesday.
After weeks of worries that centrist candidates would not coalesce around a strong Sanders alternative, Buttigieg’s exit could be the beginning of an effort to stop Sanders from winning delegates. It could also pressure Klobuchar, who performed worse than Buttigieg in every early state, to also end her bid.
Fundraising opportunity for candidates
While Buttigieg’s fundraising prowess slowed this year, raising only $6.2 million in January and $11 million by mid-February, he was one of the field’s top draws in 2019, hauling in a total of $76 million by the end of December.
With the next three rounds of voting comprising of multistate contests, cash-strapped candidates such as Biden and Warren will hope some of Buttigieg’s money will flow onto them as they try to be on the ground and on the airwaves in as many places as they can at once.
Pressure on Elizabeth Warren
The Massachusetts senator, a left-wing ally of Sanders, declared around the same time that Buttigieg dropped out that she will “persist” in the primary field. Her campaign earlier on Sunday published a memo explaining how it plans to win the Democratic presidential nomination, which alludes to an expectation of a contested convention.
With Buttigieg, who performed better than Warren in the first four state nominating contests, out of the race, the pressure is on for Warren to show tangible results on Super Tuesday and beyond.
But Buttigieg’s exit provides Warren with an opportunity to keep her presidential hopes alive. The senator and the mayor, while clashing ideologically on policies such as healthcare and the broader role of money in politics, shared a slither of crossover support: college-educated Democrats.
Although the Warren camp predicted Buttigieg’s path to the nomination would be rocky, and not all of his supporters will automatically flip in her direction, she may now meet the 15% threshold in sub-statewide districts to allow her to stay in the delegate game.
End of focus on Iowa and New Hampshire in future election years?
Aside from the catastrophe of this year’s Iowa caucuses, Buttigieg’s short-lived front-runner status, which peaked last November after polling first in the esteemed Iowa Poll and the demonstration of organization at the 2019 Iowa Democratic Liberty and Justice Celebration, calls into question whether Iowa and New Hampshire should continue being primary tastemakers.
The first two contests in modern political presidential election cycles are hosted by predominately white states, which don’t reflect the diverse makeup of the country. It’s unlikely that Buttigieg, who has long struggled to appeal to minority Democrats, would have made it so far in the race had South Carolina, for example, voted first.
