Arizona could go blue on Election Day, while Wisconsin stays red.
Demographics in the Grand Canyon State are becoming more favorable to Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. Meanwhile, Wisconsin, which, along with Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016, put President Trump in the White House with a combined vote total of about 80,000, is still very much in the toss-up category.
Biden winning Arizona depends, in large part, on the state’s changing demographics being reflected in actual ballots cast. Arizona is full of former Californians and other college-educated transplants attracted by lower housing costs and still warm weather and those who are bringing their more liberal brand of politics across the state line.
Trump won Arizona in 2016 with 48.7% of the vote, compared to Democratic rival Hillary Clinton’s 45.1%. The remainder went to third-party candidates such as Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein.
That total was down considerably from previous presidential elections. And the lack of majority support for Trump, plus Democrat Kyrsten Sinema’s Senate victory in 2018, means the state is ripe for a flip should Biden perform well enough in Maricopa County, where Phoenix and its surrounding suburbs are located.
Those Maricopa County suburbs, which have traditionally supported Republicans, voted for Sinema in 2018. And in 2016, despite Trump narrowly winning the district, voters there elected Democrat Sean Bowie to the state Senate over a Republican. Additionally, since the 2018 elections, Democrats have had an edge in Arizona’s House delegation, 5-4 over Republicans, the first time that’s happened in decades.
Current polling in the state finds Biden leading with white college-educated voters, an increasing number moving in from California, by 22 points, a demographic Trump won by 6 in 2016. A RealClearPolitics average of polls has Biden leading by an average of 5 points, with a Fox News survey released in early September showing the former vice president winning 49% of the vote, compared to Trump’s 40%.
A CNBC poll released at the end of August saw Biden’s lead much smaller, at 2 points, with neither candidate earning over 50% of the vote.
Trump’s loss of support from college-educated white people in Arizona mirrors his campaign challenges nationwide. And as the Trump campaign believes that in Wisconsin it can make up bleeding in the Milwaukee suburbs with non-college-educated white people elsewhere in the state, it’s eyeing rural Arizonans to make up the difference.
But Trump’s current strategy has befuddled some who work in Arizona politics. Earlier this month, his campaign canceled a six-figure television ad buy set to air after Labor Day in the Phoenix market.
“With a permanent presence in the state since 2016, Arizonans have heard from the Trump campaign for years and know about the wins President Trump’s America First agenda has delivered for them in just one term,” said campaign spokeswoman Samantha Zager.
Meanwhile, Team Biden is moving ahead aggressively in Arizona. The 36-year Delaware senator’s presidential campaign is spending millions of dollars in the state on ads focused on the Trump administration’s response to the coronavirus epidemic.
“With early voting 30 days away in Arizona, the race is on to target swing voters, following a massive surge in Democrat and independent voter participation in the August primary elections a little over a month ago,” said Arizona-based Republican strategist Paul Bentz. “While Trump’s campaign has made the curious decision of going dark and pulling a half-million ad buy this week, his backers are actively targeting independent and unaffiliated voters with a sizable mail blitz.”
Other Republican operatives in the state told the Washington Examiner that Trump’s rural outreach program is a hidden strength and that national polls simply do not reach these voters.
“Democrats don’t understand that once you go outside the suburbs, there are still a lot of people here who will go to the polls,” said one individual. “Trump can afford to lose Maricopa if he does well in rural portions of the state.”
