JD Vance bets Ohio GOP Senate bid on illegal immigration

J.D. Vance is turning to illegal immigration to rescue his uneven Ohio Senate campaign and come from behind to win the Republican nomination in this key red state primary.

Vance has been stuck in the middle of the pack in a crowded field of Republican contenders, although recent polling commissioned for his super PAC showed the 37-year-old conservative populist in a three-way tie for first. To vault ahead of the competition in the final weeks before the May 3 primary, Vance is streamlining his pitch to GOP voters and focusing almost exclusively on illegal immigration at the Southern border, with a biographical touch.

“Nearly every poll in Ohio, as well as nationally, consistently shows immigration as one of the two top issues that Republican voters care about,” Vance campaign senior adviser Andy Surabian said, explaining the strategy. “J.D. is standing out from the pack because he isn’t just repeating talking points.”

On Thursday, Vance received a boost on another key issue, abortion, with a much sought-after endorsement from Ohio Right to Life, an influential conservative anti-abortion group. “Incredibly honored to be the only Senate candidate endorsed by Ohio Right to Life! Let’s go win this thing!” Vance responded in a Twitter post.

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Vance’s immigration strategy emerged this week with the broadcast of a new, politically charged television spot.

In the 30-second ad, Vance preemptively dismisses accusations of racism for proposing that the federal government finish construction of a security barrier along the Southern border initiated by former President Donald Trump and halted by President Joe Biden. The biographical touch comes toward the spot’s conclusion, when Vance declares the wall vitally necessary to stopping illegal immigration and the illicit drug trade from Mexico that it facilitates, which is destroying Ohio families just like his.

“Do you hate Mexicans? The media calls us racist for wanting to build Trump’s wall,” Vance says, speaking straight to camera. “This issue is personal. I nearly lost my mother to the poison coming across our border. No child should grow up an orphan.” This message is being bolstered by television ads aired by Vance’s super PAC, Protect Ohio Values. Earlier this year, the group recommended Vance pivot to illegal immigration to salvage his campaign.

A Republican operative supporting Vance’s Senate bid said illegal immigration is the perfect issue for the first-time candidate to focus on because it fits neatly with his populist messaging and harnesses the deep opposition to Biden’s agenda that has developed among stalwart Republicans. On that front, the timing of the president’s decision to eliminate Title 42 immigration restrictions implemented by Trump in response to the coronavirus pandemic could not have worked out better for Vance.

Vance’s messaging shift in the closing month of the campaign also was a tacit concession that his attempt to run a biography-centric campaign wasn’t working. The Republican, a venture capitalist who worked for GOP megadonor (and his super PAC’s chief financial patron) Peter Thiel, became a prominent national figure when sales of his bestselling memoir, Hillbilly Elegy, took off amid the focus on white, working-class voters who flocked to Trump in the 2016 presidential election.

With Ohio impacted by an epidemic of fentanyl overdoses, connecting illegal immigration to the scourge of the criminal drug trade could resonate with GOP voters in a primary lately dominated by wealthy businessman Mike Gibbons and former state Treasurer Josh Mandel. But some Republican insiders in Ohio remain unimpressed with Vance. In particular, they question the Republican’s decision to personalize the pitch with his family’s history.

“He’s trying to get himself back in the race with an issue we know works. It’s a good issue. But he hasn’t gotten it solidified in voters’ minds that he’s the one to fix it — and part of that is because voters don’t know who he is,” a GOP operative said, requesting anonymity to speak candidly.

“To say my mother, 30 years ago, was victim because of immigration today? It’s a stretch. He’s on life support,” this operative said.

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Trump, whose endorsement could tip the race, has yet to back a candidate in the primary but recently told the Washington Examiner he plans to do so. Vance, a Trump critic at the outset of the former president’s administration, has long since become an enthusiastic supporter — a transformation his Republican opponents have hoped would derail him. Early voting in Ohio is already underway.

Republican Sen. Rob Portman, who is retiring, endorsed former Ohio GOP Chairwoman Jane Timken.

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