Democrats are still favored to win the Senate majority in November, barring a dramatic change in a swath of races or historically high coattails from President Trump.
In order to regain control, Democrats need to flip three to four seats, a plausible task considering the number of Republicans up for reelection who are facing tough challenges.
In Arizona, Republican Sen. Martha McSally trails Democratic challenger and former astronaut Mark Kelly in a RealClearPolitics average of polls by 7.4 percentage points. A survey from CNBC found Kelly’s lead at 6 points, although neither candidate enjoys over 50% support, the traditional sign of dominance in a campaign.
In North Carolina, the race appears more competitive with incumbent Republican Thom Tillis trailing by just 4.8 points in the RealClearPolitics average. Although considered a toss-up race by most election analysts, a poll of voters in the state released last week found Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham leading by a whopping 10 points.
Polling out of Maine remains relatively sparse, with the last survey taken on Aug. 9, which showed incumbent GOP Sen. Susan Collins’s challenger Sara Gideon leading by 5 points. A RealClearPolitics average of polls shows Gideon leading by 4.5 points.
Despite some of the most institutional support from the GOP, incumbent Sen. Cory Gardner faces an uphill battle to keep his state from former Gov. John Hickenlooper. The progressive polling firm Public Policy Polling, in a poll released Aug. 19, found Hickenlooper leading Gardner by 9 points, with 51% support.
Should Democrats win all those races, they’d enjoy 50 seats in the chamber, assuming Alabama Democrat Doug Jones loses his longshot effort to keep his seat. But Democrats could see that turn into a majority of 52 to 53 seats should they pull out victories in Montana and Georgia.
Democrats are pouring millions of dollars into Steve Bullock’s attempt to unseat incumbent Steve Daines, although an Emerson poll taken earlier this month found the Republican leading by 6 points. A similar picture emerges in one of the two Senate Georgia seats open, where incumbent GOP Sen. David Purdue leads Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff by 4 points, according to a RealClearPolitics average of polls.
Democrats may have a better shot in unseating appointed Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler, who in Georgia’s all-party primary is facing a challenge from GOP Rep. Doug Collins and two Democratic candidates. Loeffler risks having the Republican vote split with Collins. A RealClearPolitics average of polls still shows her leading with 4.3 points, however.
In Iowa, a better picture emerges for Republicans with Sen. Joni Ernst holding a 1-point lead over Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield, according to a poll taken in early August. RealClearPolitics still gives Greenfield a 0.3-point edge over Ernst, but that comes after averaging polls taken in May and June.
The Michigan Republican challenger John James appears to be in the midst of a resurgence, cutting his deficit to incumbent Gary Peters in half according to a CNBC poll taken earlier this month. At the end of July, Peters led by 10 points.
