Independent candidate Evan McMullin has closed in on Sen. Mike Lee’s lead in the polls for Utah’s Senate race, heating up what is expected to be one of the most competitive elections in decades in the deep-red state.
About 41% of registered Utah voters say they’d vote for Lee if the election were held today, compared to 37% who said the same for McMullin, according to a new Deseret News-Hinckley Institute of Politics poll. The 4-point margin is slightly narrower than Lee’s 5-point lead he held in a similar poll conducted in July.
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However, the race tightens when only looking at Utahns who say they “definitely” plan to vote, with 42% saying they’d back Lee compared to 40% for McMullin — giving the Republican only a 2-point advantage, according to the poll. Another 10% remain undecided.
“The Utah Senate race will be won on the front lines by the candidate who can capture the ever-important base of moderate voters,” said Jason Perry, director of the Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah. “Conservatives and liberals have largely made up their minds, now we’re going to see how the silent, moderate majority exerts their power. That is the ground both candidates want.”
McMullin may have an advantage over Lee, as the independent candidate is considered more likable by voters, garnering an overall 42% favorability rating compared to the incumbent’s 30%, according to the poll. However, McMullin still faces an uphill battle as 28% of the electorate is still too unfamiliar with the candidate to have a solid opinion.
“Just like all other incumbents, Lee is grappling with the advantages and disadvantages of having a very public record. A challenger doesn’t often have that record for people to go after,” Perry said.
The Senate race in Utah is generally deemed noncompetitive as Republicans are typically favored to win federal and statewide races against their Democratic challengers. However, the Utah Senate race has garnered nationwide attention after state Democrats opted not to advance a candidate from their own party and instead threw their support behind McMullin.
McMullin won the backing of Democratic leaders after they voted in April to nix their candidate from the ballot, conceding the party would have an uphill battle trying to unseat an incumbent Republican senator in the reliably red state. The vote not to advance a candidate from their own party was a first-of-its-kind move aimed at shifting the balance of power in the state.
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McMullin, a onetime Republican who ran against Donald Trump in the GOP presidential primary elections in 2016, has said he won’t caucus with Republicans or Democrats if elected to the Senate. This pledge has prompted pushback from Lee’s supporters, who argue his strategy “does not appeal to Utah voters.”
However, the Senate hopeful has argued he would be able to represent all Utah voters rather than limiting himself to aligning with one party.
