DES MOINES — While the political world obsesses over the problems of Herman Cain, social conservatives here in Iowa are making a quiet effort to unite behind a single candidate to defeat Mitt Romney in the January 3 Republican caucuses. Romney will benefit from a divided field, they believe, and the best way for social conservatives who oppose Romney to assert their influence would be to support a single candidate. In a move that could stun political observers around the country, those conservatives are increasingly focusing on Rick Santorum as that candidate. Nothing is a done deal — many are trying to make up their mind between Santorum and Newt Gingrich — but Santorum appears to be gaining strength fast among some of Iowa’s most influential conservative leaders.
Virtually none of that strength is showing up in the polls at the moment. To call Santorum a long-shot would be an understatement; the former Pennsylvania senator is currently in seventh place in an eight-candidate race, with 3.7 percent support in Iowa and 1.7 percent nationally, according to the RealClearPolitics average of polls. Yet many Iowans believe the caucuses might be won with as little as 25 percent of the vote, and some Iowa social conservative leaders believe Santorum has the potential to rise significantly in the nearly two months left before the caucuses. Santorum has impressed Iowans with his visits to all 99 Iowa counties — no other candidate has even come close to doing that — as well as his ability to move beyond the social issues for which he is best known to address a wide range of national and foreign policy concerns.
The social conservatives’ current focus on Santorum is the result of a process of elimination. First, many simply do not want to support Romney. While they are always impressed with Romney’s experience and knowledge, they believe what they call Romney’s “authenticity issues” have actually worsened, not diminished, since his first campaign in Iowa in 2007. For them, Romney is off the table.
Cain is off the table, too, and not primarily because of the various allegations of sexual harassment against him. Even before those charges began to dominate the news, a number of Iowa conservatives were concerned that Cain simply does not have the experience and breadth of knowledge required to be president. They want to see evidence that Cain has thought long and hard about why he should be president and what he would do if he became president. So far, they haven’t seen it. Cain also hurt himself badly among social conservatives with a series of confused-sounding statements on abortion. Of course, the harassment allegations haven’t helped. And on top of it all, Cain has virtually no campaign organization in Iowa, and social conservative leaders see organization as the key to winning the caucuses. In the end, they won’t support Cain.
Texas Gov. Rick Perry is off the table, too. After a much-hyped entrance into the race, Perry inflicted near-mortal damage on himself with his position and record on illegal immigration. Weak performances in several GOP debates also hurt Perry; for Iowa activists, it’s a hard sell to convince a neighbor to support a candidate who’s made such a poor first impression. But Perry’s problems go beyond immigration and debates. Even though he has all the experience required for a successful presidential candidate, some Iowa social conservatives doubt that Perry has dug deeply into the question of what he would do as president. They believe Perry has not backed up his talking points with the kind of detailed knowledge they want to see in a candidate.
Ron Paul is off the table, because for this group of social conservatives, he was never on the table. They consider his support in Iowa significant but permanently limited.
Michele Bachmann is off the table, as well. Even though Bachmann won the Ames, Iowa GOP straw poll last August, and has won the respect of many conservatives for her stands in Congress, these social conservatives have always worried that her relatively brief time as a member of the House of Representatives is not a solid enough a foundation for her to mount a credible run for national office. They speak highly of her but openly question whether she is ready for the job.
Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman is off the table.
That leaves Santorum and former House Speaker Gingrich. Gingrich is on the rise in Iowa, currently in fourth place in the state with 9.5 percent support and in third place nationally with 12.2 percent, according to the RealClearPolitics average. Gingrich has impressed Iowa conservatives with his debate performances and the breadth and depth of his policy knowledge. On the other hand, religious conservatives remain unhappy with Gingrich’s three marriages — for them, it’s a problem that will never go away. Emerging as an additional complication for Gingrich is growing concern about a 2008 commercial that Gingrich made with then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. The ad, for Al Gore’s Alliance for Climate Protection, featured Gingrich and the Democrat Pelosi sitting side-by-side on a couch in front of the U.S. Capitol, with Gingrich saying, “We do agree our country must take action to address climate change.” Gingrich has said he now regrets making the commercial. Social conservative leaders in Iowa fear they will see the Pelosi-Gingrich ad replayed constantly on television and the Web if they choose Gingrich. For some, that’s a major issue; for others, it’s a manageable problem. But given all of Gingrich’s other strengths, he is still under active consideration.
That leaves Santorum. Social conservatives here have long agreed with Santorum’s position on abortion, gay marriage, and other social issues. What they have discovered during Santorum’s long campaign here is that he can speak in depth and detail about a wide range of other issues, from radical Islam and the threat posed by Iran to tax policy and what to do about the loss of manufacturing jobs in the United States. In short, they are discovering that Santorum is a more multi-faceted candidate than they thought he was. In addition, they are impressed with his attention to the state and organizational work.
Santorum made a big step forward this week when he won the endorsement of Chuck Laudner, a former top aide to powerful Iowa Rep. Steve King and an influence among social conservatives in his own right. “He is talking about American exceptionalism and a higher destiny for America, and that’s speaking my language,” says Laudner. “He matches up perfectly on all of our issues.”
Laudner says he was impressed with Santorum’s appearances in the state dating back to summer. Laudner voted for Santorum at the Ames, Iowa GOP straw poll, although Laudner did not reveal his vote at the time. Now, with the caucus date officially set for January 3 (that was only done a few weeks ago), Laudner believes it is time to act. “Now that the field is set, people are taking a second look at this,” he says. “The only problem with Santorum is his standing in the polls. Well, that’s our job. We can change that.”
Private talks with other social conservative leaders in the state suggest that Laudner’s views are not unusual. Santorum appears to be among the final two choices for many of those leaders. They believe that voter allegiances can change very quickly in Iowa — some predict a major realignment among the candidates after Thanksgiving — and that Santorum could rise quickly if he has significant backing. They also realize the dangers; they know throwing their support behind Santorum might eventually marginalize them, if they were to work hard for him and he did not rise in the polls. They are also concerned about whether their counterparts in New Hampshire and South Carolina would be open to Santorum; if they aren’t, Santorum would have little clout once the campaign moved out of Iowa.
So far, no consensus has been reached. For one thing, Rep. King, who has enormous influence among social conservatives, has not signaled who he will endorse or even if he will endorse any candidate at all. In the end, it’s possible social conservatives will not unite behind any candidate. But they’re likely to try, and increasingly, Rick Santorum is a candidate to watch.
