President Joe Biden and Democrats concerned about voter enthusiasm before this year’s midterm elections are sighing with relief thanks to Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer’s retirement.
But while a Supreme Court nominee confirmation fight may energize Democrats, it may also motivate Republicans more in a cycle in which the GOP is poised to flip the balance of Congress.
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Biden and Democrats need more than an open Supreme Court seat to counter a Republican wave midterm election, according to GOP pollster Whit Ayres.
“They need President Biden’s approval to go up substantially, and for that to happen, he has to start governing as he ran, as a competent moderate, rather than like the Democrats he beat for the nomination, like Bernie Sanders,” Ayres told the Washington Examiner.
Monmouth University Polling Institute Director Patrick Murray agreed that the Supreme Court may not have “a measurable impact” on the political status quo alone
“It is more likely to become another layer in the overall narrative of how Washington can’t work together,” he said. “There may be a new twist this year depending on the abortion decision. However, this issue is more likely to fire up folks who are already prone to be fired up rather than actually change anyone’s behavior about how they might vote or whether they should turn out to vote at all.”
The Supreme Court may overturn landmark 1973 abortion case Roe v. Wade when the justices examine the constitutionality of a Mississippi law banning pregnancies from being terminated after 15 weeks.
Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy echoed Murray in contending that Biden and Democrats’ prospects remain dim.
“Voter enthusiasm can be driven by concern, and the Democrats are clearly worried about President Biden’s current approval numbers,” he said. “If inflation eases, COVID recedes, and the Ukraine situation cools down, that concern can be replaced by confidence. But that’s a big ask, and the clock ticks toward midterms.”
Biden’s average approval rating is hovering around net negative 14 percentage points before the midterm elections, according to RealClearPolitics. And two-thirds of respondents similarly tell pollsters that they believe Biden is leading the country in the wrong direction. Slightly more than a quarter disagree.
Biden and Democrats do have a one-point advantage over Republicans on a generic congressional ballot, according to NBC News polling published this week. But the same survey found that the GOP has a double-digit edge when it comes to enthusiasm. Roughly three-fifths of Republicans register their interest in the contests as a “9” or “10,” compared to almost 50% of Democrats.
While the Supreme Court may help end Biden’s problematic period before the midterm elections, it is not guaranteed to galvanize Democrats after a disappointing year for liberals.
Many young Democrats who were skeptical of Biden have become disenchanted with the 79-year-old after he promised to be the most progressive president in history during the 2020 campaign. Part of that can be attributed to his failure to deliver two centrist senators’ votes for his $2 trillion social welfare and climate spending bill. Other Democrats have become disillusioned amid the pandemic, less-than-ideal economic data, and no direct contrast provided by former President Donald Trump.
Biden is hoping that the Senate confirming the Supreme Court’s first black woman nominee will reverse that voter trend, particularly among once-loyal black Democrats who appear to be leery of the president after his lack of success in securing voting rights reform. Biden had vowed to push for voting rights legislation after his Build Back Better priorities stalled.
And Biden is not the only one. Democrats, such as Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, blasted her email database to tell supporters she could “think of about 9,000 reasons why Democrats need to hold onto — and grow — our majority in the U.S. Senate.”
“But we just got a reminder of a really, really, really big one: the Supreme Court,” she said. “With Justice Breyer retiring, President Biden only knows he’ll have his nominee considered because Democrats took back the Senate in 2020.”
The GOP is organizing to block the confirmation of any Supreme Court nominee “who will rubber-stamp the far Left’s political agenda,” despite Biden and Democrats’ Senate control, according to Republican National Committee chairwoman Ronna McDaniel.
“This type of judge is a threat to Americans’ constitutional rights, including religious liberty, the Second Amendment, the right to life, and free speech,” she said. “The RNC will do everything in our power to expose Biden’s Supreme Court nominee and hold Senate Democrats accountable in November for their votes.”
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And Biden “does not have a single vote to spare in the Senate,” McDaniel added.
