Greenhouse gas emissions need to fall 7.6% a year across the world, faster than previously estimated, to avoid the worst consequences of climate change, according to a report from the United Nations that found that nations have fallen behind in meeting climate goals.
That level of emissions cuts is necessary if the world is to fulfill the most ambitious goal of the 2015 Paris Climate accord — limiting the Earth’s warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit).
Countries in the Paris deal pledged to hold total global warming to “well below” 2 degrees Celsius and agreed to “pursue efforts” to limit warming to 1.5 degrees.
“The summary findings are bleak. Countries collectively failed to stop the growth in global GHG emissions, meaning that deeper and faster cuts are now required,” said the U.N’s annual “emissions gap” report published Tuesday, which assesses the difference between the world’s current path and what’s required to meet the goals of the Paris agreement.
The report found greenhouse emissions have increased 1.5% per year in the last decade, stabilizing only briefly between 2014 and 2016. Emissions reached a record in 2018.
They would have to start falling fast to reach the goals of the Paris pact, under which nations set their own nonbinding targets for reducing carbon emissions.
By 2030, emissions would need to be 25% or 55% lower than 2018 levels to put the world on the “least-cost pathway” to limiting global warming to below 2 degrees and 1.5 degrees, respectively.
Countries must triple the ambition of their Paris pledges to achieve the below 2 degrees goal and increase their targets fivefold to hit the more ambitious 1.5 degrees level.
A previous report issued by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in October 2018 warned about the implications of the 1.5 degree temperature threshold.
It said that avoiding that temperature increase is necessary to avert extreme heat, water scarcity, mass death of coral reefs, and significant sea level rise.
That report sparked a number of small countries to make commitments to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. It also inspired the rise of the “Green New Deal” and pushed Democratic presidential candidates to make pledges for the U.S. to meet the net-zero emissions by midcentury goal.
President Trump has initiated the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris accord, but it remains a part of the pact under U.N. rules until one day after the November 2020 presidential election.
The U.S., the world’s second-largest emitter, remains far away from reaching its Paris target, set by the Obama administration, of reducing emissions 26% to 28% below 2005 levels by 2025.
U.S. carbon emissions from energy spiked 2.7% in 2018 after years of steady declines, the Energy Information Administration has found, although emissions are on track to slightly decline again this year.
