Montana voters headed to the polls Thursday for a special election to the state’s only seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, hours after Republican candidate Greg Gianforte was charged with assaulting a reporter.
The contest was supposed to be a test of President Trump’s electoral strength over a year ahead of when Republicans must defend their House majority in the 2018 midterm elections. It may still offer a real sign of where the GOP stands, but Gianforte’s alleged “body slam” of The Guardian’s Ben Jacobs has complicated comparisons with other races across the country.
Democrats won’t allow that to be an excuse if their nominee Rob Quist prevails. “If Quist wins, Rs quiet on Gianforte now will be grabbing bullhorns to tell you how insane he is [and] how you [can’t] conclude anything from race,” former Hillary Clinton spokesman Brian Fallon tweeted Wednesday night.
Even before the violent incident with the reporter, the race was too close for national Republicans’ comfort. One GOP operative told the Washington Examiner, “The race is definitely within 5 points.”
Democratic insiders aren’t enthralled with Quist as a candidate, but the cowboy hat-wearing folk singer has galvanized the Bernie Sanders wing of the party, and progressive donations have rolled in. There is a strain of populism within the Montana electorate that sometimes works to the Democrats’ benefit.
Gianforte was also viewed as a flawed candidate. The Republican narrowly lost the Montana governor’s race last year even as Trump was carrying the state by 20 points.
But after Wednesday night’s encounter with the Guardian reporter, three Montana newspapers pulled their Gianforte endorsements. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee incorporated the body slam into a new ad. And Gianforte backed out of media interviews, including “Meet the Press.”
“Today is Election Day in Montana. But before you vote, ask yourself, ‘If Greg Gianforte can be sentenced to jail, should he really be elected to Congress?'” asked the DCCC ad.
“He showed Wednesday night that he lacks the experience, brains and abilities to effectively represent Montana in any elected office,” the Missoulian editorialized while rescinding its Gianforte endorsement.
National Republicans have have largely stuck by Gianforte, though few defended his behavior. House Speaker Paul Ryan said the candidate should apologize to the reporter
“I am going to let the people of Montana decide,” Ryan said. “This is their choice.”
“I do not think this is acceptable behavior,” Ryan continued. “But the choice will be made by the people of Montana.”
Jacobs asked Gianforte a question about the latest Congressional Budget Office score the American Health Care Act, the GOP’s plan to replace Obamacare. Gianforte had been noncommittal about supporting the bill, in part because he was waiting for the CBO to weigh in.
Gianforte told Jacobs to talk to him later and then asked the reporter to talk to his press secretary. When Jacobs persisted, Gianforte became angry. Jacobs said Gianforte body-slammed him and broke his glasses. The Gianforte campaign said Jacobs shoved a recorder in the candidate’s face and the two accidentally tumbled to the floor. A Fox News team waiting to film an interview with Gianforte corroborated Jacobs’ account.
Some political analysts have argued that the tussle is reflective of the climate Trump has created. The president has harshly criticized the press, both since taking office and on the campaign trail.
“A guy assaults a reporter, which I guess shouldn’t be too surprising in the age of Trump where he calls the press ‘enemy of the people,'” said MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough, a former Republican congressman from Florida. “Their reckless words have consequences.”
But overall the controversy does make it difficult to determine what a Republican loss or narrow win would mean for the national party. Republicans had a closer-than-expected special election for a congressional seat in Kansas. Another will take place in Georgia next month, where the Democrat almost did well enough to avoid a runoff in a district Republicans have held since 1979.
One factor that may limit how much of an impact the incident has: Many voters cast their ballots before it happened. It has been estimated that 37 percent of Montana’s registered voters had already voted before in-person voting started Thursday. The total number of absentee ballots returned exceeds the number mailed out in 2014.
The congressional seat came open when Republican Ryan Zinke resigned to become Trump’s secretary of the Interior.
