Bernie Sanders has been banking a lot on California. He has spent more time campaigning there than Hillary Clinton, is gaining ground in the polls and is hoping a win can revive his chances of claiming the Democratic nomination.
Democratic strategists aren’t so sure Sanders can pull this off. After winning in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the weekend, Clinton is fewer than two dozen delegates away from clearing the threshold she needs to clinch the nomination. The Associated Press count estimates Clinton has already clinched.
Absent the AP projection of unbound delegates’ intentions, Sanders would have to win 98 percent of the remaining delegates to reach 2,383 delegates before Clinton does.
“California is a must win for Sanders, for Clinton not so much,” San Francisco-based strategist Steven Mavigilo told the Washington Examiner. “Here’s Sanders’ dilemma: Clinton will win the nomination earlier in the day when New Jersey comes through. I don’t think that’s any momentum for him. So even if there’s a Sanders victory in California, the media narrative will be how she’s sprinting in to the convention.”
But the Sanders campaign has refused to buy into this storyline. They’ve shifted all their resources to California over the past few weeks, in the hopes that the momentum from a win could increase their influence on the party platform or even lead to a contested convention.
California has one of the biggest and most expensive media markets in the country, and in past cycles candidates have focused on regions where they can get the most bang for their buck— especially urban centers like Los Angeles and San Francisco. Clinton has largely adhered to this strategy, holding most of her campaign events in the two major cities and buying $1 million worth of ads in the Los Angeles area.
Sanders has gone the nontraditional route, holding numerous events in small towns that rarely see national politicians, such as Spreckles or Bakersfield. The Vermont senator has also taken advantage of the diversity of the state’s bustling media scene, appearing on any and all small-market television and radio programs for interviews.
“He is running a nontraditional campaign here in California. It’s more like something you’d see in Iowa or New Hampshire,” California-based Democratic strategist Brian Brokaw told the Examiner. “Gubernatorial or Senate campaigns don’t step into places as remote as the Sanders campaign has. He needs a big election day turnout because the fundamentals are in favor of Clinton.”
Clinton has shifted into overdrive in response to Sanders’ efforts in the state, cancelling events in New Jersey and other states to focus on securing her own decisive California victory.
“Obviously the Clinton campaign would love nothing more than to put an exclamation point on the primary process with a win in the biggest state in the country,” Brokaw said. “The Sanders campaign is leaving it out on the field so to speak. The fundamentals are very much in Clinton’s favor but it’s evident that is race this certainly much closer than any of use would have expected.”
Early voting began in California thirty days ago, and so far over half of results favor Clinton, according to Brokaw. In California, a voter with no party preference cannot participate in early voting — something that doesn’t bode well for Sanders’ bid, given his strength among independents.
“Early voting is more partisan, and we’re seeing a dramatic increase this year,” explained Data Incorporated vice president Paul Mitchell. “But I don’t think it can predict the final record.”
Following Tuesday nights results Clinton and Sanders will face off in one final primary in Washington, D.C., on June 14, where 20 delegates will be up for grabs. The Sanders campaign has promised to fight all the way to the convention though, no matter what the final numbers.
